Street by street analysis of a marginal hand

Hebel · #1 11-29-2007, 07:53 PM

I played this hand tonight at nl25

Full Tilt Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button ($24.90)
Hero ($29.20)
BB ($21.45)
UTG ($25.80)
MP ($48.85)
CO ($12.45)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO raises to $0.5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $2, 1 fold, CO calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $10.45 (All-In), Hero calls $7.45.

Turn: ($25.15) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)
.

River: ($25.15) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $25.15

Lets break this hand down step by step. Assume that villain is unknown, but you have seen him limp into the pot with marginal hands and view him as loose. His short stack contributes to the idea that he isnt very good.

Preflop, we can assume that 1010 is ahead of a not very good players range. Lets assign him a minraising a range of 22+, k10+, q10+ and A8+. This is a simplistic range, and a loose villains range could easily be much wider or tighter. But against this one, 1010 has 61% equity. So a pf reraise is in order.
Pre-flop

Wins Ties Equity
60.16% 0.51% 60.67% ( TcTs )
38.82% 0.51% 39.33% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

When villain smooth calls, I think it is safe to eliminate KK/AA from his range, as a bad villain would probably just shove. So lets tighten his range slightly to 22-QQ,K10+, and A8+. Against this range, our 10s still have 61% equity after the flop:

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
59.55% 1.14% 60.69% ( TcTs )
38.17% 1.14% 39.31% ( 22+, KT+, A8+, QT+ )

So a Cbet is in order.

Once villain shoves, we must tighten his range further. Assume villain is pushing any Q, overs with a flush draw, a made straight with 10j (left out before for simplicities sake), A9, and occasionally a small pair as a bluff. Against this range, we still have 40% equity

Board: 8c 9c Qh

Wins Ties Equity
37.96% 2.14% 40.10% ( TcTs )
57.76% 2.14% 59.90% ( AcKc, AcJc, QT+, QQ, 88, 99, TJ, 66, A9 )

This is because even against sets and a Q, we still have about a 25% chance of sucking out (a 10, J, and possibly running clubs). Additionally, we may be ahead if villain is occasionally bluffing or shoving a worse hand or draw. Given the pot odds of 2.5:1, what looks like a clear fold is actually a call.