Calculating LSU's Odds to win National Title

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
PO,

I'll gloat for you.

Very nice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. Luckily I have been cleaning up on NCAAF futures, because I am doing worse than Dr. Bob in NCAAF games.

[iggymcfly]

Well, while LSU's obviously eliminated now, I just wanted to keep the spirit of this thread going by giving some rough numbers for the remaining teams chances to win the championship:

West Virginia: -104
Ohio State: +315
Missouri: +327
Other: +7000

The initial asssumptions there are that WVU's 95% to beat Pitt and Oklahoma's 58% to beat Missouri. Then, for simplicity's sake, I figured Oklahoma to play for the championship when WVU and Missouri both lose since they seem far and away most likely (probably ~85-90%).

I set the championship lines at:
Ohio State vs. West Virginia -3 (spread/running QB and team built on speed getting a 3 pt. matchup edge vs. team that had trouble with those and is perceived as slow)
Missouri -1.5 vs. West Virginia
Missouri -1 vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma -6 vs. Ohio State

My ML numbers won't be super accurate, but if you see West Virginia at +130 or the no on Missouri at -280, I think you can feel pretty safe pounding it.

[crockpot]

i believe your numbers indicate oklahoma should be much better than +7000:

.58 * (1-.95) * .67 = 1.9%

small potatoes, but if you see oklahoma at 70-1...

of course, you can't be sure they'll get in even if that parlay hits.

[iggymcfly]

Oops, that was stupid. When I was looking at the 4 matchups, I just assumed the one with Oklahoma in was least likely when it actually wasn't. Even with an adjustment for a 15% chance that Georgia or USC gets in over them, anything at +5800 or higher should be +EV on the Sooners.

No point really recalibrating everything until the WVU/Pitt line comes out though now as it should be up in an hour or two. Oklahoma's favored by 3.5 FWIW.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, while LSU's obviously eliminated now, I just wanted to keep the spirit of this thread going by giving some rough numbers for the remaining teams chances to win the championship:

West Virginia: -104
Ohio State: +315
Missouri: +327
Other: +7000

The initial asssumptions there are that WVU's 95% to beat Pitt and Oklahoma's 58% to beat Missouri. Then, for simplicity's sake, I figured Oklahoma to play for the championship when WVU and Missouri both lose since they seem far and away most likely (probably ~85-90%).

I set the championship lines at:
Ohio State vs. West Virginia -3 (spread/running QB and team built on speed getting a 3 pt. matchup edge vs. team that had trouble with those and is perceived as slow)
Missouri -1.5 vs. West Virginia
Missouri -1 vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma -6 vs. Ohio State

My ML numbers won't be super accurate, but if you see West Virginia at +130 or the no on Missouri at -280, I think you can feel pretty safe pounding it.

[/ QUOTE ]

The latest Pinnacle moneylines give these percentages for each team to win.

WVU 96.4%
Missouri 40.8%

If both these teams lose (2.1%), I think LSU will have the inside track to getting back into the title game. In other words, if LSU beats Tenn in the SEC title game, I think they would get in ahead of Oklahoma.

Using these assumptions, let's estimate the chances that each team makes the title game.

WVU 96.4%

Missouri 40.8%

Ohio State

WVU wins, Missou wins 39.3%
WVU wins, Missou loses 57.1%
WVU loses, Missou wins 1.5%
WVU loses, Missou loses 2.1%

This means Ohio State makes it 60.7% of the time. 57.1% of the time, they play WVU. Only 1.5% of the time do they play Missouri. 2.1% of the time they play someone else.


LSU

We'll say that LSU will make it if they beat Tennessee and both WVU and Missou lose. They can only wind up playing Ohio State.

vs Tenn (Atlanta, GA) -7.5 71.9%

3.6% X 59.2% X 71.9% = 1.5%


Oklahoma

We'll say that Oklahoma will make it if WVU loses, Oklahoma beats Missou and LSU loses.

3.6% X 59.2% X 28.1% = 0.6%


Here's the probability of each matchup.

WVU vs Ohio St 57.1%
WVU vs Missou 39.3%
Missou vs Ohio St 1.5%
LSU vs Ohio St 1.5%
Oklahoma vs Ohio St 0.6%


Am I sure that LSU would be chosen as the 2 loss team to play in the BCS title game? No. I have only read one article analyzing the 2 loss scenario, and this is what was suggested. It's tough to say which 2 loss team would make it. However, it's easy to use the numbers given to adjust for other possible scenarios. For example, if you believe that Oklahoma will always make it ahead of LSU, than just bump them up to 2.1% and LSU down to 0%.

A couple of notes...

1. If LSU makes it, I am gonna flip the [censored] out

2. IMO, the Missouri/Oklahoma line should be closer to pick. I don't understand why it is -3.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]

Ohio State vs. West Virginia -3 (spread/running QB and team built on speed getting a 3 pt. matchup edge vs. team that had trouble with those and is perceived as slow)
Missouri -1.5 vs. West Virginia
Missouri -1 vs. Ohio State
Oklahoma -6 vs. Ohio State


[/ QUOTE ]

According to my earlier assumptions, here's the probability of each matchup. Of course, these could be wrong as Kansas, Georgia, LSU or Oklahoma could all be possible Ohio State opponents.

WVU vs Ohio St 57.1%
WVU vs Missou 39.3%
Missou vs Ohio St 1.5%
LSU vs Ohio St 1.5%
Oklahoma vs Ohio St 0.6%

Here's my lines, with the % for each team to win the game. Since the game is in New Orleans, and I have given a HFA to LSU.

WVU -3 vs Ohio St 58.5%/41.5%
WVU -1 vs Missou 51.3%/48.7%
Missou -2.5 vs Ohio St 56%/44%
LSU -3 vs Ohio St 58%/42%
Oklahoma -2.5 vs Ohio St 56%/44%

Using these estimates, here are my fair lines for winning the national title.

WVU -115
Missouri +400
Ohio St +296
LSU +11394
Oklahoma +29662

I'm sure many people will disagree with my projected BCS title game lines. I think it would help this thread if several people contributed lines, so that we could get a better idea of what to expect. I am gonna guess that most people think I am underestimating the Oklahoma versus Ohio State line.

[murphstahoe]

I think OSU is favored over mizzou or WVU. I went ahead and bought 7 contracts @25 per. Having watched mizzou and OSU several times. Mizzou got a lot of breaks vs illinois and still almost lost vs the backup qb. OSU and illinois were pretty evenly matched AFTER juice figured out this passing thing

[NajdorfDefense]

WVu -1 Ohio
WVu -3 Missou
Ohio -3 Missou
Okla -2 Ohio

These are my proj lines, not necessarily where I would place them, as this week's Mizz line is verging on Fla v Ohio weirdness if it goes over 3 imho.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
WVu -1 Ohio
WVu -3 Missou
Ohio -3 Missou
Okla -2 Ohio

These are my proj lines, not necessarily where I would place them, as this week's Mizz line is verging on Fla v Ohio weirdness if it goes over 3 imho.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have Missou +3 vs Ohio St, Okla -2 vs Ohio St and yet you are betting on Missou +3 and +3.5 vs Oklahoma? I would love to see what kind of power ratings results in these kinds of decisions.

[murphstahoe]

i think naj is saying that is what the lines would be, not what he thinks they should be. There will be great bias towards OSU vs Mizzou for a BCS championship game where the public comes out to play. Not so much for Oklahoma, another traditional power.