99 against UTG raise $4.40

[markbris]

Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, hes been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t4660)
Hero (t11425)
CO (t4633)
Button (t7994)
SB (t24315)
BB (t11490)
UTG (t18225)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

[levAA]

against a tight opponent it is an easy fold imo.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.532% 72.10% 01.43% 288906588 5722104.00 { 99+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 26.468% 25.04% 01.43% 100328340 5722104.00 { 99 }

even if we loosen up you hardly get the odds you need as you might not have enough FE.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.122% 63.11% 01.01% 382546980 6130452.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.878% 34.87% 01.01% 211347732 6130452.00 { 99 }

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, he's been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) internettexasholdem.com

MP1 (t4660)
Hero (t11425)
CO (t4633)
Button (t7994)
SB (t24315)
BB (t11490)
UTG (t18225)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t2400</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is a shove. U have 42% equity against a tight range of TT+;AQs+;AQo+ and he's prob calling with his entire range. If his range is wider u might have a little FE as well. There's about 1800 dead money (blinds + 75 ante) so shoving, even w/out any FE is EV+. As an option...I'm thinking that flatcalling might induce shorty CO to shove with a bunch of hands, and that would make racing with UTG even more EV+. Thoughts?

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
against a tight opponent it is an easy fold imo.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 73.532% 72.10% 01.43% 288906588 5722104.00 { 99+, AQs+ }
Hand 1: 26.468% 25.04% 01.43% 100328340 5722104.00 { 99 }

even if we loosen up you hardly get the odds you need as you might not have enough FE.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.122% 63.11% 01.01% 382546980 6130452.00 { 99+, AJs+, KQs, AKo }
Hand 1: 35.878% 34.87% 01.01% 211347732 6130452.00 { 99 }

[/ QUOTE ]

Lev...are u saying that the 1st range (99+;AQs+) is UTG's raising or calling range? If it is his raising range, then u have to include AQo+AKo.

[levAA]

AK is included (it's AQs+), you can add AQo but that doesn't change the equitiy very much

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Guy seems like a donkey from some of the plays he's made. They don't really relate to this hand though, he's been fairly tight at 18/12 and I havent seen him raise that much. I saw him miniraise QJ in mp and miniraise AA utg in the first level much earlier. Shove or fold?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t800 (7 handed) [url=ht

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
AK is included (it's AQs+), you can add AQo but that doesn't change the equitiy very much

[/ QUOTE ]

If you type AQs+ into pokerstove...it's does not including AKo...so your range is very skewed.

[usha]

According to your read on him, I would put him on a much wider range than just 99+,AQs+,AQo+

This could easily be 77+,AJo+,AJs+ IMO (I would even say KJs+), esp with his stack size.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.853% 46.16% 00.70% 469453704 7093482.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 53.147% 52.45% 00.70% 533467908 7093482.00 { 77+, AJs+, KJs+, AJo+ }

Lets say he folds 30% of the time and no one else is coming for the ride.

30% folds - you win 4125
70% calls:
46% you win 400+800+6*75+11425 = 13075
53% you lose 11425

so 4125*.3 + 13075*0.7*.46 - 11425*0.7*.53 = 1208

So this play is +cEV, but I doubt if this is +EV, since 1.5BB isn't much for trny life, but I'ld like to hear more from you guys about this.

[donkeykong2]

i think your math is wrong or at least flawed, if you let him fold 30% you have to assume he calls with the top 70% of his range, then our equity should be lower.

[BarryLyndon]

He calls with 77, KJ, or KQ?

Barry