(KT) second pair - fold the turn?

ElAnimal · #1 07-25-2006, 01:23 PM

Sorry ahead of time for the vanilla hand. Trying to focus more on fundamentals these days.

Villain is 32/10/1.6 after 202 hands. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, Hero calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Button folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets, Hero...

This is a very standard fold, right? I've only got 5 solid outs and 3 heavily counterfeited, though I might still be ahead of a few PPs.

Does it change things if turn is a blank?

Buffalo Davis · #2 07-25-2006, 01:26 PM

I fold.

Nick C · #3 07-25-2006, 01:33 PM

It looks like a fold to me, and I think your reasoning is good too.

ILOVEPOKER929 · #4 07-25-2006, 01:39 PM

Many people wont even bet the turn on this board with the few pocket pairs that you are ahead of, which further supports a check/fold on the turn. I play the hand the same way as you every street against this guy.

Gravy · #5 07-25-2006, 02:24 PM

OP,

Were you planning on calling down on a nonthreatening board? Or just peeling and folding the turn UI to a bet.

___ · #6 07-25-2006, 03:00 PM

Why not bet the flop? If villain raises you Button usually folds and you can play on as having 5.5 outs (discounted slightly for the possibility of being against AK). The donk could fold KK-JJ, or at the very least encourage them to merely call instead of raising.

Peter Harris · #7 07-25-2006, 03:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet the flop? If villain raises you Button usually folds and you can play on as having 5.5 outs (discounted slightly for the possibility of being against AK). The donk could fold KK-JJ, or at the very least encourage them to merely call instead of raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think bet/calling the flop is good, as you have more of a chance to fold out button, you may know slightly better where you stand, and against a villain who slows down fast, may get to see the river for free.

The latter is unlikely, but leading out on the flop is a sensible posture to adopt.

ElAnimal · #8 07-25-2006, 03:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
OP,

Were you planning on calling down on a nonthreatening board? Or just peeling and folding the turn UI to a bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
That's why I asked in my original post what should hero do if the turn is a blank (<10).

I guess it's a range thing. Villain raises 10% preflop and he's UTG. I'm confident he's positionally aware, so I'm guessing his range is like:

ATs
AJ-AK
KQ
88-AA

In other words, he has an A a lot, and the fact that he bet the turn, makes it even more likely. Given this range, I'm still ahead of only 88, 99 and KQ. The pot is relatively small on the turn and a bunch of cards scare me on the river. I'd still fold the turn UI.

ElAnimal · #9 07-25-2006, 03:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Why not bet the flop? If villain raises you Button usually folds and you can play on as having 5.5 outs (discounted slightly for the possibility of being against AK). The donk could fold KK-JJ, or at the very least encourage them to merely call instead of raising.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree to an extent, but I don't think betting the flop has an advantage as a line against KK-JJ. Donking the flop pretty much says "I have an underpair" as most players w/ an A would either c/r, or c/c flop and turn, bet river. I don't think KK-JJ ever fold in this spot. As far as folding out button, I guess you're saying I want him to fold QJ? Otherwise, I don't care if he stays. He either has me beat or has 2-4 outs the great majority of the time. If UTG just calls, button peels a lot, and I'm faced with being OOP on the turn against two opponents with a very weak hand.

When UTG raises the flop, it ends up costing me 1BB to see the turn and likely fold UI, versus 0.5BB for just calling. My draw dictates that I have to see the turn either way. If I could b/f the flop, I'd like betting out more.

I'm not sure I see a substantial advantage to the flop bet.

Big fan of your posts, by the way.

___ · #10 07-25-2006, 03:53 PM

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Big fan of your posts, by the way.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I try to bring the quality; I'm glad you appreciate it.

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I don't think KK-JJ ever fold in this spot.

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I have folded KK-JJ in this spot, and I don't think it's a leak. Against a LAG opponent it isn't very likely, but this villain seems tight.

[ QUOTE ]
I agree to an extent, but I don't think betting the flop has an advantage as a line against KK-JJ. Donking the flop pretty much says "I have an underpair" as most players w/ an A would either c/r, or c/c flop and turn, bet river... As far as folding out button, I guess you're saying I want him to fold QJ? Otherwise, I don't care if he stays. He either has me beat or has 2-4 outs the great majority of the time.

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I don't think most aces check/raise, but c/c seems reasonable. The disadvantage of checking and calling, is what do you do if button raises a hand like JT or 89? Both are behind you, in his range, and could fold you out. You'd even prefer him to fold a hand like J9.

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If UTG just calls, button peels a lot, and I'm faced with being OOP on the turn against two opponents with a very weak hand.

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The same can happen at least as easily by checking and calling.

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When UTG raises the flop, it ends up costing me 1BB to see the turn and likely fold UI, versus 0.5BB for just calling.

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You are never folding the best hand with my line, you may fold out a better hand, and you protect yourself better against button. I'm just not sure how to quantify the value of that, and whether it's greater than the value of check/calling.

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I'm not sure I see a substantial advantage to the flop bet.

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I'm not 100% convinced either, but I've given my thoughts. I'm going to re-read the relevant section of "How Good is Your Limit Hold'em?" tonight to understand the sort of situations he recommends the flop donk in.