THREE, yes THREE ACES!!, but barf 2/4NLCASH

[brandysbich]

Thanks for explaining how you got the 30% figure, still doesnt seem right to me that top set is only good 30% of the time here but i'm not going to argue about something I dont know.

About not making it more complicated than it is, you saying that by using the "zomg 3 aces' approach and just calling based on that is not gonna get me far wrong...yet optimally according to you this is a fold? I dont see how not far wrong could be a complete u-turn on optimal play. I dunno...for me there's just too much things involved in hu like instincts, flow of the game and history that crunching numbers on a hand like is just gonna give you headaches. I mean who are we kidding, no matter what the equations say i'd be willing to bet not one HUCASH player here can say they are c/fing this river. So in the end it all comes down to zomg I have 3 aces i call.

[tmcdmck]

the reason that "zomfg 3aces" makes you call, yet my approach makes you fold, yet i say there is not much in it is pot odds.

on river villain makes a pot sized bet, so we are getting 2:1 to call. that means we have to be good 1/3 times for a call to be correct. 30% is slightly less the 1/3 times, therefore it is a fold. BUT because there is only 3% in it, a call would not lose you that much, therefore a call would not be that bad. when a decision is really close, it normally makes little difference what you actually do in the longrun, as a close decision means you intuitively feel you are very close to being good the right amount of the time one way or the other.

so basically the nice thing about the "zomg 3aces" approach is that when you call incorrectly, you rarely lose that much (in the longterm), and it saves you from folding incorrectly (which is likely to cost you more due to how often a set of aces is good).

obviously there are flow and instincts, but they are really just an instinctual understanding of the numbers (and if they are not, then quite frankly you have bad instincts). furthermore, since you cant convey those things well in a post, we just have to deal with cold hard maths. i really dont understand why you think bringing maths into poker is so problematic: understanding pot odds is vital to success, and it would be very odd if a player said calculating them was uneccessary and made their head hurt. equity calculations are a more complex example of the same thing.

i disagree that no HUCASH player would be folding the river. I am usually a calling station, but i have folded sets in spots like this.

[mb6tour]

As to the pokerstove issue, I strongly recommend you get Hold'em Ranger too. It's allows you to wheight hands and to insert suited cards much easier.

The equity calc I made to this hand looks like that:

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
24.00% 0.00% 24.00% ( AcAd )
76.00% 0.00% 76.00% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, )

If we add more two-pair combinations and put also TT and JJ it gives you:

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
34.48% 0.00% 34.48% ( AcAd )
65.52% 0.00% 65.52% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, TT, JJ, J6s, )

And with T6s + aces up

Board: Ts 6d Js Ah 3s

Wins Ties Equity
46.48% 0.00% 46.48% ( AcAd )
53.52% 0.00% 53.52% ( 66, TJ, KQ, As2s+, Ks2s+, Qs5s+, 5s6s+, TT, JJ, J6s, T6s, AT, AJ, A6, A3 )

I'm not wheighting anything here.