Improve my game

[CHAx]

Here's the deal. Winning NLHE 2-4, PL omaha 200, and now starting to win LHE. Recently moved to 5-10LHE and with 8k hands im about 3.5 BB/100 playing two tables (I'm around 5/100 playing one table -- tend to take out the TAGers who are multitabling with semi bluffs etc who incorrectly read me as TAP).

16.5 vpip 7pfr 2.0 aggression.

Guess this is what I need to know. I've either started to run badly, or I was running good and now things are falling more fairly and I honestly am struggling to tell the difference. My first 5k hands I just destroyed the tables, doubling up quickly or generally staying even. Every session was a win or very minimal loss. Nothing much has changed in the way im playing, infact I've tightened up my starting hands. But Im hitting massive swings. Seriously 1k swings on two tables in 3 hours. I mean my roll can handle the swings but Im not used to swinging this much (my nl and pl swings are nothing like this). Ok here is the typical death swings im taking -- aa capped 4 way, 3 betting flop, and then check raised turn on what appears to be harmless cards. Always a set or bluff from kk or semi bluff to new draws. But here's my problem Im so stuck in this hand that because of the value, im calling down a semi bluff or kk (typically 16BB pot by turn). Now you ask how am I involved in the massive pots all the time? Because I loosen up my 3 beting against overly aggresive players and weak players (hands ak - 1010 mayb 99 etc). I think this causes the tighter players to see me as having weak raising standards, but really its just me reading a player.

Is there a way to maintain 3-4BB/100 without this kind of variance? Should I tighten up further preflop and preflop raising standards? Why am I getting check raised on almost every single turn? (I've shown strength preflop but im getting bluffed alot and i mean a lot -- this forces me to call down small sets for value ----- seems to be a cause of my variance). Perhaps my table image is bad... but why when Im constantly showing down strong hands? (very rarely UI ak bluffs to river etc)

futhermore why am I on these huge swings only lately? (this was not happening in the 10k hands i played at 3/6, 2/4) - btw 6.25 BB/100 at those levels.

So yes I am winning, but the way the last 3 - 5k hands have gone I feel emotionally weak about my game. You know that guy calling you down with 77 and he always seems to hit that 2 outer on the river? Every hand I fear that, and it seems to be happening with some regularity. -- But I know perception vs. reality can be a real problem. Talk some sense into me. What's happening?

[Saint_D]

On this very board a respected poster says the 5/10 may only be beatable by a "very good" player for 2.75bb/100. So it seems were running super hot.

see this post for the estimated top win rates. http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=5052540

6.25bb/100 @ 2/4 is absolutely on fire. 2.5bb/100 is closer to the generally accepted "sustainable" win rate for a "good" player.

My honest advice is to drop to .5/1 or 1/2 and hang out in the Micro Limit forum to work on your game. Get about 20-30K hands at those limits and make sure your beating the easy games and aren't just on fire.

The stats you posted are in the target zone, but they don't paint much of a picture. See if you can get someone to go over 200-500 of your recent hands and look for leaks.