Middle set deeeeeeeep OOP vs 2p2er and fish

NT! · #1 10-13-2006, 12:57 PM

Thanks to everyone for all the PLO advice after my last thread. Here's an interesting hand that I'd like your opinions on.

5/5 PLO private game, it is both wild AND crazy.

A few limpers, I limp with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or something like that. Probably too loose. 2p2er behind me in either the CO or button makes it 15 and there are some callers, I call closing the action.

2p2er seems like a solid PLO player, I don't know that much about the game but he seems good. Will definitely move some chips around in the right circumstances though.

Villain: about 2k
Me: same
Fish: about 1k

Flop A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

It's checked to me and I pot it for about 125. 2p2er calls on the button and a fish calls from EP. Three ways to a turn

K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (~500 in the pot)
Checked around

River is a brick, it goes check, check, 2p2er bets 200, fish thinks for a minute and calls the 200.

My thinking up to this point was this:

I don't think it's too likely that villain or fish have AA preflop. Fish would pot it and I think villain would either pot it or limp it, but I could be wrong.

So on the flop, I think it's pretty likely that I've got the best hand, but it's vulnerable. Villain will definitely check back even in position if he doesn't like the flop so I don't want to go for a c/r. Once I get called in two spots, I am guessing that my ten high flush draw is a blocker and not live.

Turn is presumably a bad card for me so I check to see what's gonna happen. If I bet and villain raises it will shut out the fish. If we check to him and he bets, fish may call and give me the odds to fill. If the board pairs villain is definitely good enough to shut down with a flush.

Gets checked around which is odd.

I wondered if I should bet the river but decided there's not much value there and there's a solid chance somebody else has a flush. Once it gets back to me and I'm getting about 9:2.

The bad player doesn't need a flush to call here, and he can have a lower flush as well. I have yet to see villain bet less than the pot on the river like this. He has usually just bet the pot when he gets there against other players, but that doesn't mean he can't change it up vs. me if he thinks the fish is weak.

Thoughts? Results to follow.

NT! · #2 10-13-2006, 02:42 PM

is this totally boring or retarded or anything, i thought it was kinda interesting

piiop · #3 10-13-2006, 02:46 PM

I would've bet 1/3 or 1/2 pot on the river.

I think check minraising the river would be awesome.

Fish could have a wide range of hands here, but not a flush since he checked twice. Villain probably has a wrap, fd, or both on the flop but once he checks the turn the best he has is J-high flush, but he probably bets that too. He called the flop with a decent draw and position since you're deep enough, but since the fish called also he decided not to bet but once you both check again he decides he can get value/folds from you both. Hope that makes sense.

wazz · #4 10-13-2006, 02:50 PM

Does sound like a good spot for a squeeze play, but you have to be sure that neither will call. In terms of stack size you have room to manuevre here because your pot raise takes fish all-in. Neither is likely to call that raise with top set, if the 2+2er is very good he may call you with a jack-high flush but it's very unlikely. Your problem comes when 2+2er is playing a hand like KhKsQcxc, which seems like a reasonable proposition if he is anything near tricky.

Your other problem comes when 2+2er is not afraid to bluff. He could be holding the naked Qc and realise that you can't call with anything but the nut flush, even if his reraise all-in offers you something like 5-1, you just can't call it.

It really depends on how good you think 2+2er is, and how tricky he gets. I like this spot for a squeeze play sometimes but it really does depend on your opponents.

cmyr · #5 10-13-2006, 03:56 PM

what's the value of a squeeze play? short handed, the good player in position could be betting alot of hands here hoping to pick up a pot nobody seems particularly interested in. you're ahead of alot of hands, and if you raise you're only getting called if you're beat. I think you're getting decent odds to call here.

aoeuhtns · #6 10-13-2006, 04:04 PM

I'm still a new omaha player but my thinking was the same thinking as cmyr's. Looks like the 2+2 is just trying to pick up the pot and your hand is good but you don't really want a lot of action so just call and expect to take down the pot most of the time.

beset · #7 10-13-2006, 05:02 PM

I would not be happy about over-calling but you are getting a good price against unknowns so i think I call here. Raising seems a little bit suicidal.

Pouncer · #8 10-13-2006, 05:03 PM

With those stack sizes, I don't see a made Q flush or J flush not betting the turn. The river seems to be an easy call.

I probably would have bet half the pot or so on the turn. Two pair hands and wrap straight draws are just as likely as better flush draws on that flop. If you bet that turn card and get raised you know you're in trouble, rather than guessing on the river.

easycall · #9 10-13-2006, 07:06 PM

shouldn't this thread be titled T high flush deeeeeeeeeeeep OOP vs 2p2er and fish? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

- Jordan

wazz · #10 10-13-2006, 07:16 PM

My apologies, I didn't notice that hero made a flush on the river, the title confused me. :P

In that case, I like a call usually, though if I have a read that either likes to slowplay I would think hard about folding.