AQo deep OOP vs TAG, 4bet pot, flop plan

[benlj21]

eww i would never 4bet here with a sc. This is the bare minimum for me really, possibly I should just call though.

[SharpObject]

I think you have to look at the equity vs. his calling range.

[Unknown Soldier]

your 4b is a bluff, fwiw I'd rather do it w/ scs then AQo

[benlj21]

what if I know he will call me with many suited dominated hands?

[SharpObject]

If you assume villain is good, I think its safe to say he's not calling 4 bets with 56s, especially when you're only 200bb's deep. Maybe if you were say 500bb's deep.

[Unknown Soldier]

like ATs or something like that? then it isn't a bluff i guess [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

4b is ok then if he calls w/ a load of speculative hands. Given your read you should def cbet this flop 120 or so

[Spy Dog]

Why did you even call the 3-bet? AQo is probably no better than 55% equity versus his range and I would guess it is probably less than that. Even at 55% equity you lose your edge because he is in position.

4-betting might have merits if you raised from the CO or Button and 3-bets you from the blinds because he know you steal lightly, but this is not the spot nor the hand.

Another thing is that pairs and suited connectors go way up in value in deepstacked situations and hands like big aces or KQ go way down against a good player.

Think about it like this: When he calls your 4-bet, what flops could you make a +EV bet?

Your 4-bet narrows his range to AQs+/AKo/TT+.

+EV flops for you:
- AQx, rare and he's only calling with AK. He folds TT/JJ/KK and stacks you with QQ.
- KJT, rarer. Let's not pray for miracles.
- QQx, rare. You will stack KK or AA, though.

Seemingly good flops, though -EV
- Axx. You lose your stack to AK. Worse hands fold.
- Qxx. Bye,bye money. You lose to KK/AA and worse hands fold.

Any other flop is going to be -EV against his range postflop.

So, your 4-bet is basically a stone-cold bluff with -EV postflop value.

However, if you held 98s then your hand is still a preflop bluff, but with greater postflop value VERSUS HIS RANGE.

I'd much rather play 98s versus AK/TT+/AQs than play AQo versus that same range.

With 98s I know I am ahead of his postflop calling range if I flop:

99x/88x
98x
Straights
Flushes

Plus, I have the added equity of flopping OESD/Flush draws/combo draws.


Overall, 98s and AQo have equal fold equity preflop when you 4-bet. Postflop, I would say that AQo might lose you $60 postflop on average in this scenario, where 98s might lose $30.

Good luck with your play.

[benlj21]

jesus he called me with QJs [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

I cbet flop for 120, he called. Turn was 5c, I shoved, he tanked and called [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Doug Funnie II]

Spy- I think your preflop logic is very sound, but you seem to ignore the possibilities of bluffing postflop. From villain's point of view, we have a monster most of the time here. I agree it would be better to do this with a SC so that when we get looked up bluffing the flop/turn we probably have a little more equity, however I think there's still lost of postflop discussion left.

Think about it, what decent player gladly felts KK or QQ for 220 bets against somebody that 4 bet preflop? While OP may have put himself in a pretty crappy spot, I think there's still enough wiggle room to turn this hand into a win.

[SharpObject]

umm... Why are you shoving this turn?

But I think you know a turn shove is probably bad, although if his hand was face up I like it.