Super standard calldown in limit

[admiralfluff]

I've seen him limp/call preflop, and bet pot on flop OoP HU 4-5 times in a few orbits. Of the 2 times the other person just called, he overbet the turn.

I agree with everything in your post, and yes, the real question is: "What is the most reasonable approximation of this players actual strategy given what we know about the NL population (which is zilch for me, hence the thread) and this retardation-biased sample?"

[DeathDonkey]

The point is what if our hand was 22 instead of JJ? If raise/folding the flop is more +EV compared to folding right away (EV of 0) than raising with JJ is clearly better than folding too.

-DeathDonkey

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
The point is what if our hand was 22 instead of JJ? If raise/folding the flop is more +EV compared to folding right away (EV of 0) than raising with JJ is clearly better than folding too.

-DeathDonkey

[/ QUOTE ]

Raise/folding is a terrible idea given stack sizes. Raising at all is a bad idea given that all better hands call and all worse hands fold.

JJ has much better showdown value than 22. If Villain is bluffing with 3rd pair, he still beats our 22 but not our JJ. If Villain doesn't have an Ace, then JJ is almost always good. So we let him keep the lead if we decide to stay in. The only real value we're getting is if he decides to bluff off his stack with an underpair/air, and raising gets him to shut down.

If I was holding 22 and decide to stay in, then I shove the flop as a stone bluff. That folds out all his crap hands that might inadvertently beat us and only an Ace calls. Some Villains might lay down a bad Ace, but not this guy (which is why I'm not shoving the flop here).

In fact, given OP's read and stack sizes, I am not raising anything on this flop. Not AK, not a set, nothing. Villain is likely to shove the Turn and that seems a much better way of getting money into the pot than raising.

[BigPoppa]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with everything in your post, and yes, the real question is: "What is the most reasonable approximation of this players actual strategy given what we know about the NL population (which is zilch for me, hence the thread) and this retardation-biased sample?"

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a theorum (Aejones Theorum?) that goes "Nobody ever has anything". I think this guy, in his own idiot way, is operating on that Theorum.

He figures that most players, even ones who raised preflop, don't want to call a PSB on the flop and turn on most boards. So he just donk bets into them and takes the pot away.

If this guy ever shows down a hand, you'll get a much better idea of what he's doing this with. Without a showdown, I can't really guess his range; but it includes crap aces, underpairs, and air. Just not sure what the proportions are.