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#11
03-27-2007, 11:40 AM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
You realize that, say, 70% of the time, someone will raise behind and you will end heads-up with no impetus and a bad hand. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. I don't mind, really, since I'm in the dead zone and a wraith already. I just want to get out of this SNG or get back among the living, and t240 isn't among the living yet IMO. I think you guys may be too fixed at cEV which may equal $EV here BUT in my opinion it doesn't maximize $/hr here. [ QUOTE ] I mean : here it seems that you say to me, look how good my play was BECAUSE the flop gives me OESFD vs 354681313 opponents. [/ QUOTE ] Good point, I should have made this street by street. Ok many think that preflop was bad given I was UTG+1. How about if I had been on the button and there were 4 limpers? 
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#12
03-27-2007, 11:55 AM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm surprised no one has mentioned the flop bet. Egads. [/ QUOTE ] Please elaborate. I have already stated that I'm not interested in taking down a pot of t210, especially now that I have flopped this kind of monster draw and I have a real chance of n-tupling if I can just keep my customers in. I might be wrong in my philosophy "n-tuple or bust", and maybe I should be interested in taking the pot down now. This is exactly what I'm trying to find out, and that's why I posted. I'm willing to change my mind, but I'm going to need more reasoning than "Egads".
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#13
03-27-2007, 08:12 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] So your stack is 120 and you limp UTG+1 for 30, right ? [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. I have no desire to double up, much less steal the blinds. To double up here would be devastation $/h -wise, I don't want to spend another 10 minutes in this SNG with t240 looking for spots to get it in. I want to play a multiway pot with a hand that does well in multiway pots and n-tuple up back to contention. If my limp doesn't accomplish a multiway pot, it might still be good if it induces other limpers behind me, and then a LP squeeze, and I'd end up HU with massive overlay. [/ QUOTE ] This is among the worst things I have ever seen posted here. You are treating the most valuable chips as the least valuable.
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#14
03-28-2007, 01:54 AM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
This is among the worst things I have ever seen posted here. You are treating the most valuable chips as the least valuable. [/ QUOTE ] That's a good point, and I hadn't thought of this concept. Still not sure if it applies here, though, aiming to maximise $/hr... What do you suggest I should do preflop?
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#15
03-28-2007, 02:16 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
This is among the worst things I have ever seen posted here. [/ QUOTE ] And this, sir, is among the biggest overstatements I've ever seen posted here. I mean, my equity is currently $0.90. NO decision I make can cost me more than that. And you're saying that my philosophy for approaching this RARE situation OF LITTLE VALUE is among the WORST things you've ever seen posted, when at the same time people routinely make TEN TIMES more costly mistakes on the bubble on a DAILY BASIS.
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#17
03-28-2007, 02:47 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
Well,
I have to admit, when I first read the initial post, I was inclinded to go the shove route too, and I am still not convinced it is incorrect. But, the more I think about it, the more merit I can see in this line....IF you take it from a stricly EV / hour approach. A bit esoteric, but...if you take the discussion that Skalansky has about your chances of winning a tourny heads up (that is the ratio of your chips to your opponenent's...assumming all else is ~ equal...is roughly your chances of winning) and extrapolate this idea to what the hero's chances are when facing a whole table, increasing even to T240 is of limited benefit. OTOH, based on the report above, hero was able to get the pot to T210 while leaving 75% of his stack intact. Now...I am not excited that he has 75% for its own sake, but rather that this 75% can be used on later streets to try to bring multiple players in for some portion or all of the T90. Taken to the extreme, he COULD potentially get to T720 plus his original T120 (total T840) if he hits his hand and all of the original callers match his bet (not likely, but not impossible). Clearly he is going to bust more often (much more often) than not in this situation, but I guess the real question is...isn't he extremely likely to bust before he gets in the money anyway? If we agree that the answer is yes he is extremely likely to bust before he gets in the money, those few times that this strategy works may account for a small increase in long term EV. Honestly, I believe there are far too many variables to do the math accurately as, even if he is succussful with this play, there are many too many hands that have to occur before the winner, place, and show are determined. Having said that, I have to think that a small chance is better than a micro chance. Fammy
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#18
03-28-2007, 03:36 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
shove preflop [/ QUOTE ] Ok. Let's close the preflop. I gather that shove might be better, but the limp has it's merits too. $EV -wise the difference is probably minuscule. However, I actually limped, and it's a family pot. I'd still like to hear more reasoning from those that don't like the flop. Or post a confirmation if you approve so I'll know where I'm at with my philosophy there.
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#19
03-28-2007, 05:55 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is among the worst things I have ever seen posted here. [/ QUOTE ] And this, sir, is among the biggest overstatements I've ever seen posted here. I mean, my equity is currently $0.90. NO decision I make can cost me more than that. And you're saying that my philosophy for approaching this RARE situation OF LITTLE VALUE is among the WORST things you've ever seen posted, when at the same time people routinely make TEN TIMES more costly mistakes on the bubble on a DAILY BASIS. [/ QUOTE ] This situation is not at all rare. It happens frequently. Justifying a mistake by saying it is a small one is a horrible attitude to approach this game.
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#20
03-28-2007, 11:55 PM
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Re: line check \"6-tuple or bust\" (a.k.a down to t120 level 1)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This is among the worst things I have ever seen posted here. [/ QUOTE ] And this, sir, is among the biggest overstatements I've ever seen posted here. I mean, my equity is currently $0.90. NO decision I make can cost me more than that. And you're saying that my philosophy for approaching this RARE situation OF LITTLE VALUE is among the WORST things you've ever seen posted, when at the same time people routinely make TEN TIMES more costly mistakes on the bubble on a DAILY BASIS. [/ QUOTE ] This situation is not at all rare. It happens frequently. Justifying a mistake by saying it is a small one is a horrible attitude to approach this game. [/ QUOTE ] As you see, I never tried to justify any mistake in that post. The point was to put things into perspective for you, i.e. my philosophy cannot be among the worst things you've ever seen posted.
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