Shorting Party Gaming right now +EV?

BeL0wMe · #1 09-30-2006, 03:42 PM

Party has been one of the worst stocks I have ever seen, as its dropped from 175 to 90 in just about a year. I have only played the mutual fund game, which is a much easier one to be a winner at, but alas I'm not very knowledgable in equities.

Would it be worth my while to options trade on Party, since I can easily see it hitting 80 by the end of the year, now that the internet gambling bill has passed. Anybody knowledgable, Naj? DesertCat? Help me out on this one?

Joe Camel · #2 09-30-2006, 05:26 PM

I don't know jack about this sort of thing, but this sounds like a good idea to me, and I would expect it to fall much more than 11%, since Americans are such a huge part of their business.

Sniper · #3 09-30-2006, 05:47 PM

The full impact of the legislation is still a bit unclear... but, uncertainty is not good for stock price...

You will need an account that allows you to trade London stocks though.

ilikeaces86_ · #4 09-30-2006, 06:13 PM

What is their ticker on the London stock Exchange?

Sniper · #5 09-30-2006, 06:32 PM

Some Poker/Gambling related symbols on the London exchange...

PRTY - PartyGaming
EOL - Empire Online
NLR - Neteller
SBT - Sportingbet
888 - 888 Holdings
WMH - William Hill
BSS - BetOnSports

whiteladder81 · #6 10-01-2006, 12:51 AM

I was also thinking about buying some put options. I just read there interim report

http://www.partygaming.com/images/do...lts_070906.pdf

page 2-6 the are hyping up there increase of new non-us markets and really making that the focal point of 2006. On page 20 you can see that US provides prty 77% of there revenue this year even after all of the good things they tell you about non-US markets. During all of this since Jan. of 2006 the stock has dropped from 135 to 105 and has actually increased since June. This also could be a good opportunity for a straddle.

mayday4379 · #7 10-01-2006, 01:30 AM

the problem is that everyone is going to be shorting them, so trying to get in will probably be tough. Its not like we're the only one's who know this news.

schundler · #8 10-01-2006, 03:11 AM

do most online brokers based in the us let you trade stocks on foreign exchanges? scottrade, ameritrade, etc?

Sniper · #9 10-01-2006, 03:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
do most online brokers based in the us let you trade stocks on foreign exchanges? scottrade, ameritrade, etc?

[/ QUOTE ]

Most do not...

Dazarath · #10 10-01-2006, 05:34 AM

I thought we could just buy PYGMF.PK?