Flop decision

Entity · #1 08-03-2006, 09:58 PM

Party 15/30 6max.

Button in this hand is 86/36/2.5. He will occasionally be pacified in multiway pots but is capable of raising flops, turns, etc., with very little.

Folded to me in MP3 and I raise 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. CO (50/12/1.1), a passive retard who generally calls with hopeless hands and raises with TPNK+, calls. The Button, a out of control maniac who is up about 60BB at the table in the last 30 minutes, 3bets. SB folds, and BB, a 35/22/1.7 player, caps. He has been at the table for over an hour and has started to 3bet the maniac liberally, so he's definitely adjusting.

I call, CO calls, and the Button calls. 4-ways to the flop for 16.66SB.

The flop is 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. BB bets. I'm next to act, and I should...

Rob

avidlearner · #2 08-03-2006, 10:03 PM

wait for a safe turn card and re-adjust?

it is the first thing that comes to mind, but who knows if you will get the chance.

will the BB 3bet a potential button raise with just overs?

gaming_mouse · #3 08-03-2006, 10:39 PM

I think it's a pretty easy muck. If you were closing the action against this field, you'd have implieds odds for your set but w/ a likely raise coming you don't. Yeah, you *might* have the best hand, but you're going to have to dodge the whole deck if you do.

Kwaz · #4 08-03-2006, 11:22 PM

fold and cry.

PartyGirlUK · #5 08-03-2006, 11:22 PM

Jonah,

I think we have the best hand here a tonne. Co we almost always have beat. Maniac's 3 bet means very little, there are only about 9 hands we are behind, he is 3 betting with soooooo much more, we are ahead of him very very likely too. BB is the only worry, and we are probably ahead of him approx. half the time. The pot is 17sb and i would guesstimate we are ahead 40% of the time here, so mucking is out of the q imo. I think this is a good time to raise for information here, unless BB is good enough to 3 bet or cap with a worse hand in order to force us out. Most players arent capable of that, so I raise here, peel if 3 bet.

Kwaz · #6 08-03-2006, 11:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think we have the best hand here a tonne.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision.

Entity · #7 08-03-2006, 11:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we have the best hand here a tonne.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having the best hand now has a lot to do with the decision. The pot is already almost 9BB. Throwing away the best hand here would be a very large mistake.

It should be said that the maniac isn't the type to raise 9 or T high multiway on this flop, though he very well might raise good Ace high hands.

Rob

Kwaz · #8 08-04-2006, 12:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we have the best hand here a tonne.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having the best hand now has a lot to do with the decision. The pot is already almost 9BB. Throwing away the best hand here would be a very large mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

These sorts of statements mean nothing.
Sure, if everyone flipped their cards up and showed you that you had the best hand, it would be a mistake to fold.

Even then it wouldn't be massive.

Victor · #9 08-04-2006, 12:59 AM

folding seems absurd here.

i raise, and tho it sucks to get 3bet, you got odds to call.

Entity · #10 08-04-2006, 01:14 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think we have the best hand here a tonne.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think having the best hand now has little to do with the decision.

[/ QUOTE ]

Having the best hand now has a lot to do with the decision. The pot is already almost 9BB. Throwing away the best hand here would be a very large mistake.

[/ QUOTE ]

These sorts of statements mean nothing.
Sure, if everyone flipped their cards up and showed you that you had the best hand, it would be a mistake to fold.

Even then it wouldn't be massive.

[/ QUOTE ]

WTF? All I'm saying is that the equity you have in the pot makes a huge difference in whether you should call, fold or raise. Yes, I will be drawn out on in the pot a reasonable amount of the time. Yes, sometimes I'll be behind on the flop. All of these things will combine to make the initial 17.66:1 that I'm getting not quite as good as it appears, but saying -- like you did -- that having the best hand has little to do with the proper action -- is really bad and tending toward oversimplifying things in the wrong direction.

The main thing is, in this hand, that without my hand having much of a prospect of being best (let's say only 10%), then folding would be clearly correct. But when my hand has a better chance of being best, then that absolutely needs to be factored into your decisionmaking.

Rob