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#12
11-20-2007, 05:40 PM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
I just can't seem to let this one go. I have as many as 6 outs (two 5s that should be golden, three 6s that are questionable, and a running straight), but I probably need to discount that to about 4 given the 2 flush. The pot's not laying me nearly enough to draw at 4 outs....
The problem is, I feel like my hand might currently be best a pretty good portion of the time here. As I said in my post, the table was tighter than usual, so I think that eights and better fives are going to be a little less common than usual. If I hold the best hand here even 20% of the time I feel like I'd have to raise, no? This is odd for me, because at the table I appear to have made the right decision, but with lots of time to think about it I feel like I messed up. Obviously this usually works the other way around [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#13
11-20-2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
[ QUOTE ]
The pot's not laying me nearly enough to draw at 4 outs.... The problem is, I feel like my hand might currently be best a pretty good portion of the time here. [/ QUOTE ] Exactly. Even if you are best (which I don't think you are often enough to justify raising with so few outs if you're not) this is textbook RIO.
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#14
11-20-2007, 06:41 PM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
back door straigh as a full out??? I think this is very loose imo. Also recheck the math, even if you don't chop and no one redraws with a flush runner-runner straight does not quite make a full out. flush does.
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#15
11-20-2007, 06:45 PM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
[ QUOTE ]
back door straigh as a full out??? I think this is very loose imo. Also recheck the math, even if you don't chop and no one redraws with a flush runner-runner straight does not quite make a full out. flush does. [/ QUOTE ] how about you talk to jesse about that? whatever. we could count the six at two outs as well, leaving out the 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
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#16
11-20-2007, 06:56 PM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
OK, OK, OK....So let's say I've got just 4 outs (which is what I admitted up above). That leaves the pot thin by 4 small bets.
My question is this: How does the fact that my hand is good a non-zero amount of the time here change my calculations? It has to, right? If I raise, some percentage of the time everyone else is going to fold and the bettor is going to be holding nothing more than a flush draw (with 1 or 2 overs). I agree with the fold now, I'm just trying to come up with a clear and easy to understand way to understand how that little piece of the probability pie helps.
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#18
11-21-2007, 06:32 AM
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Re: Live 6/12: 56s Catches a little piece
OK, our 5's may be the best hand right now but they are still 5's and our kicker is not higher then the highest card on the broad. This means we could catch a 6 and still be behind. Not to mention it's puts three to the straight to go along with the flush draw. Or we could miss and pretty much any card puts another over out there.
No matter what we hit the redraw could kill us and cost us a lot of money. When we play hands like this we need to hit the flop, here we got a tiny piece and our draws suck. Classic fold. There is no reason to fight over every hand we are in.
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