***Official 2007-2008 NHL Season Thread***

Sunny Mehta · #1 11-19-2007, 11:53 PM

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I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

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Funny you should ask that..... link

although, I will say that the Isles looked fairly impressive tonight....held the Rangers to 19 shots.....defensemen did a really good job at their own blueline....standing 'em up, deflecting shots and passes into corners, etc....

Rubeskies · #2 11-20-2007, 12:19 AM

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I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

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Funny you should ask that..... link

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Good, now I can sleep at night.

Triumph36 · #3 11-20-2007, 12:57 AM

To me, Garth Snow has done a tremendous job the past two years of identifying players with NHL skills but whom have nearly fallen out of the league for one reason or another. Last season he snapped up Viktor Kozlov as basically a shootout specialist, and Kozlov ended up turning in the best season he's had since Pavel Bure left the Panthers. This season it's Josef Vasicek, who always had a ton of skill, but could never seem to put it all together. Throw in guys who've practically made a career out of that (Comrie, Guerin, Satan, Hunter), and with the right coach and some luck, they can win games.

The Islanders had a similar start last year - and then collapsed and basically backdoored their way into the playoffs. I expect something similar to occur - that defense is a patchwork almost as bad as New Jersey's, but none of their guys are hurt. I do think they will outperform their Pythag expectations, though - that's Nolan and DiPietro.

Sunny Mehta · #4 11-20-2007, 03:04 PM

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I do think they will outperform their Pythag expectations, though - that's Nolan and DiPietro.

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I would not be surprised if they did either, but that's IF they do it with stellar defense and goaltending - which they really haven't this year (DiPietro hasn't been very good).

I will say this - Pythag expectations get a little haywire in hockey, mostly 'cause of this ridiculous overtime system. (I.e. - some games featuring 3 total points being awarded, instead of 2.) In theory, a team that tied every game in regulation would end up being WAY better than their expected .500 w% due to OT/SO. (Even if they had a worse than average chance of winning in OT/SO, say 40 percent, that projects to like a 115pt season!) Take a look at the Devils last season - way outperformed their goal diff due to so many OT/SO wins.

So that's the first thing - if we assume a very defensive low-scoring team is more likely to be tied after regulation, that's a big benefit to them points-wise. Particularly if they have a good goaltender who will expect to fare well in a shootout. (See the Rangers this year - I almost guarantee they'll outperform their Pythag.)

The other thing is that defensive teams in general sometimes outperform their goal diff even just in regulation. This is definitely contentious, but I have two possible explanations:

1. Technically, a team that wins 2-1 has won by a bigger "margin" than a team who wins 6-5. (I.e. - The former team has won by 100 percent whereas the latter only by 20 percent.)

2. Teams that are low in both goals for and goals against are subject to more variance than a team with a higher differential. (<-- This is probably what's really going on.)

daman123 · #5 11-20-2007, 06:46 PM

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I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

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Funny you should ask that..... link

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Good, now I can sleep at night.

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Okay you have 43 GF and 37 GA for the Rangers and 43 GF and 44 GA for the Islanders. I'll take 3 wins and 0 losses vs the Rangers and I guess we're both happy.

Seriously though, those stats don't mean a whole lot. The season is too young. One loss they had was 8-1 vs Toronto while starting Doobie and the other was 8-3 to a very good Carolina team. Other than those games they have been playing well.

triumph, do you really think this is a bad defense?

campoli, bergeron, berard, witt, sutton, martinek. i would say that it's fairly solid.

Triumph36 · #6 11-20-2007, 07:31 PM

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I look at the Islanders roster and I say to myself... how does this team have a winning record? Can anyone explain it to me?

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Funny you should ask that..... link

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Good, now I can sleep at night.

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Okay you have 43 GF and 37 GA for the Rangers and 43 GF and 44 GA for the Islanders. I'll take 3 wins and 0 losses vs the Rangers and I guess we're both happy.

Seriously though, those stats don't mean a whole lot. The season is too young. One loss they had was 8-1 vs Toronto while starting Doobie and the other was 8-3 to a very good Carolina team. Other than those games they have been playing well.

triumph, do you really think this is a bad defense?

campoli, bergeron, berard, witt, sutton, martinek. i would say that it's fairly solid.

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bergeron and berard barely belong in the NHL - they are absolutely terrible at defending. bruno gervais has been playing over MA Bergeron.

andy sutton is decent but takes a lot of penalties. i've always liked radek martinek but he is inconsistent. campoli is meh. bruno gervais isn't very good. brendan witt has done a good job remaking his game - he still takes a lot of penalties.

really, it's not that good.

g-bebe · #7 11-21-2007, 10:41 PM

Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!

Triumph36 · #8 11-21-2007, 11:29 PM

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Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!

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If the Atlanta jerseys didn't look like a periwinkle nightmare, I might.

I like Kovalchuk a lot and hope he ends up on a non-Atlantic Division winner someday - this hot streak is a real shame for Atlanta fans, because Don Waddell needs to be fired ASAP.

g-bebe · #9 11-21-2007, 11:57 PM

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Atlanta's 11-4 since going 0-6. y'all better buy an Ilya Kovalchuk jersey!

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If the Atlanta jerseys didn't look like a periwinkle nightmare, I might.

I like Kovalchuk a lot and hope he ends up on a non-Atlantic Division winner someday - this hot streak is a real shame for Atlanta fans, because Don Waddell needs to be fired ASAP.

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I'm not TOO familiar with the situation. I know they fired their head coach, his name eludes me right now but Don Waddell is the GM-acting-head coach right now, correct? What's the word on who is next in line?

I just get the feeling that when Lehtonen comes back, Atlanta will hit a slump. I group him with Fleury -- young goalies who have talent, yet haven't really shown it with consistency yet. Moose is playing really well right now, and always has from a backup role. I think disturbing it, whenever that happens, could be a bad thing