Call a crazy push with AK late in a ps180?

[JohnFR]

How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here. I want somebody to give me an actual range that this is a fold to, and if you ONLY include pairs in your range, you are making really bad hand assignments, I think this question would be harder if I had 66, or AJ, not AK.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Yet you ignore the benefit of having a bigger stack to play on the bubble, which ADDs $ev to this equation. I believe you are overestimating the non-1:1 relationship between chips and real money at this point in the tournament.

But let's remove the potential big-stack-abusing-the-bubble benefit from the equation because that is really hard to quantify (and it is slight, though so is the amount we are behind in the hand).

Do you believe that hero has a greater than 45% chance of doubling up if he folds? Because that is what this is really about.

If you believe you are a better than 80% chance to double up you should not risk your tournament life PF by calling with AA. If you believe you are better than 75% chance to double up you should fold an AK vs AQ confrontation PF. The reality, is though, that no one is that good, especially in a fast structure like this one where you are quickly forced to push substandard hands that certainly do NOT have a greater than 45% chance of doubling you up.

[Jeff76]

[ QUOTE ]
How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here.

[/ QUOTE ]This is accurate and why this is a trivially easy call.

However, the "do I call with slightly -cEV?" is an interesting question.

[glass_onion]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, cEV does not equal $EV. It would be lesser than $ev. So you start out with what you admit is a -EV bet (qq vs AK) and add to that the fact that your 'payout' in chips isn't 1:1 in terms of money, it makes it EVEN more -$EV.

[/ QUOTE ]Yet you ignore the benefit of having a bigger stack to play on the bubble, which ADDs $ev to this equation. I believe you are overestimating the non-1:1 relationship between chips and real money at this point in the tournament.

But let's remove the potential big-stack-abusing-the-bubble benefit from the equation because that is really hard to quantify (and it is slight, though so is the amount we are behind in the hand).

Do you believe that hero has a greater than 45% chance of doubling up if he folds? Because that is what this is really about.

If you believe you are a better than 80% chance to double up you should not risk your tournament life PF by calling with AA. If you believe you are better than 75% chance to double up you should fold an AK vs AQ confrontation PF. The reality, is though, that no one is that good, especially in a fast structure like this one where you are quickly forced to push substandard hands that certainly do NOT have a greater than 45% chance of doubling you up.

[/ QUOTE ]

And responding to this:

[ QUOTE ]
How is this even a question? I don't understand, I have seen many villains in a $20/180 shove 67s, or QJo, or A5, and RARELY see them shove AA or KK here. I want somebody to give me an actual range that this is a fold to, and if you ONLY include pairs in your range, you are making really bad hand assignments, I think this question would be harder if I had 66, or AJ, not AK.

[/ QUOTE ]


Again, most intelligent and winning people on here will say that this is most likely PP hands in this range. Again, OP's read said "he hadn't done anything in 20 minutes, was tight." Why would AA, KK, or AQ- do this. People that are saying he is shoving any two I don't think are reasoning the hand through, or are rookies that only learned in the last month that they should become aggressive on the button, and are now in the stage of development where htey are 2nd leveling that strategy from thier opponents. Yeah, I've seen people do dumb stuff, but villian has M bigger than 15+. He's not under blind pressure. THINK, what type of hands make a coward "I dont want to see a flop" M=15+ all in bet come from, from tighty?

I'm not playing scared, and I don't give a rats ass about bubbling or making the money. THis hand has 3 important components:
1) the HUGE, almost lock liklihood that he has PP
2) the fact that you are at 15=M, so you don't have to gamble
3) the odds, again 1.22:1 > 1.07:1. YOu aren't getting odds. cEV<$ev, so chips aren't worth an equal proportion of money, moreover.
4) "the villian hadn't pushed in 20 minutes. No maniac behavor or anything"

And yes, I think I can double up much more often than 45% in these situations. Give me an M of 8 and I'll double up more often than that. I"ll steal 5+ blinds before the bubble bursts, maybe a resteal if hte opporitunity presents itself, which BTW would be a huge chunk of my stack. Hell, even if I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar its tough to be less than 40%. The beauty of m=15ish stacks is that these opporitunities are everywhere.

ITs obviously a trivially easy call if:
Your or his M is smaller, 10ish.
You think you are a weak player
YOu have some READ that says he might push a wide range that includes, say, A9+, in addition to PP's.

If he std bet, hell yes I'd be restealing. So its not passivity. I'd resteal a 2.5x-3x std bet with just about any two against this type of player, because if he's doing stupid stuff like this you should have a READ on him by this stage in the tournament. The coward be says he'll be easy to push around. Why give that up?

[glass_onion]

[ QUOTE ]

But this isn't a cash game, and cEV != $ev.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is very, very wrong.



[/ QUOTE ]
I believe the advantage hero gains by doubling up now before the bubble, combined with the risk that he probably does not have a greater than 45% chance to double up due to the structure of the game

[/ QUOTE ]

If that's what you believe, than your opinion is perhaps valid. I feel like i'll double up a 7-15M stack MUCH more often than 45% of the time.

[Poisoned]

i like how glass says its 100% impossible for him to shove AT-AQ here which is plenty possible.

i also like how hes saying people who didsagree with him are donks, while hes trying to justify folding AK to a button shove.

[glass_onion]

[ QUOTE ]
i like how glass says its 100% impossible for him to shove AT-AQ here which is plenty possible.

i also like how hes saying people who didsagree with him are donks, while hes trying to justify folding AK to a button shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well Dan Harrington and the math agree with me, if, and we disagree here, his range is exclusively PP's. As an afterword, I was sitting on this table and unlike OP I did have a pretty good read on villian. FWIW.

Again, I'd resteal with it,
I'd call if I'd bet 2.5x and he set me in,
but I won't call an open shove of 24BB to this opponent, on the button.

[Poisoned]

[ QUOTE ]
but I won't call an open shove of 24BB to this opponent, on the button.

[/ QUOTE ]

then you need to reread HoH and/or learn basic poker strategy.

you cant put him on only PP. you CANT. stop thinking you can. something tells me that you really are scared of finishing out of the money, even though you deny it. no other reason your consider folding

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.119% 44.90% 00.22% 553516488 2742246.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 54.881% 54.66% 00.22% 673857900 2742246.00 { JJ-22 }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.052% 50.04% 05.01% 1079669844 108074640.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 44.948% 39.94% 05.01% 861683916 108074640.00 { JJ-22, ATs+, ATo+ }

and that second range is too tight

[fs3142]

Thanks for the feedback, some great posts here. For the record, after I folded he showed AQs, FWIW.

I didn't see the decision as playing too passive or tight -- I was jumping at the chance to resteal until he floored me by pushing himself -- my thought process was that I had plenty of time to steal blinds on the bubble, resteal a time or two and maybe find a better spot to gamble.

Do I have a problem thinking that 22XBB is a good enough stack to stay patient? I wouldn't pass up a spot where I had even a small edge, obviously, but I was convinced this was a PP. And if he showed me a PP before I made my decision, I would fold. Is that too weak? And I don't care much about getting ITM at that point (it's better than not getting ITM, but it's not significant), but when I looked at my chances of going deep into the FT, I didn't think it was correct to call a push for what I thought was a flip. So I'm glad to get the feedback.

[nath]

this thread made me die a little inside