The Anatomy of a Misplayed Hand - Tunica Circuit Event

[DP388]

I started writing this as a post to find out if I should make a final all-in call or not and then I realized how bad every line of this hand was (at least I think so). This is not a situation I normally get in, but I was playing on auto-pilot and my line felt right at the time.

I’d love to hear comments on the entire line (as played and my post-hand analysis).

Saturday $500 buy-in at the Tunica WSOP Circuit Event
750 entries, around 300 left, 72 paid

Blinds 100/200 + 25, playing 11 handed. Blinds go up every 50 minutes and we’re about 20 minutes into this level. Next level is 200/400 + 50 (however, at the time I thought it was going to be 150/300 + 25)

I have about 6K

Villain is an older guy in his late 50s who has been at the table about 3 orbits. He has not played a pot yet. It looked like he had about 5-6K.

My image is TAG, but the villain has probably only seen me in two hands. Both were limped pots when I was in the SB. One hand I check-raised and took it down without showing and the other I bet out and folded to a button raise.

<u>The Hand</u>

Action: Folds to a loose MP player with about 2,800. He’s pretty predictable and likes to see the flop with suited cards, connectors, etc. He will almost always call a raise after limping. He doesn’t’ know how to manage his stack, and has made loose calls with a short stack before.

MP limps. I’m in the hijack with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I feel like I can stack MP if I hit the right flop, so I decide to call.

Villain is on the button and makes it 800. MP calls, I call. I almost always fold here, but I also know there are specific flops I’m looking for and decide I have the stack to make the call.

<font color="red"> Correct Play: </font> Fold to the raise pre-flop. I only have about 10M and will need to commit too many chips to continue this hand or be prepared to get it all-in on a draw unless I flop a monster.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Action: MP checks and I decide to bet 1K into the 2,975 pot. My reasoning was that even though Villain is tight, it doesn’t mean he has a big pair. If he has AK or AQ, he is likely going to fold and it didn’t look like the type of flop that MP hit. I didn’t want to commit too much of my stack and I could possibly get away from it if villain pushed.

<font color="red"> Correct Play: </font> In hindsight, this bet is horrible. What am I representing? It’s too small to get a fold and looks exactly like a flush draw bet. And even though it’s small, this bet plus the pre-flop call commits 1/3 of my stack. Now that I’m in the hand I should probably check and evaluate based on Villain’s play. I might get a free card, or I can push/fold depending on his bet size.

Action: Villain insta-shoves for 4,275 and MP folds. Now there is 8,250 in the pot (I actually miscalculated the pot at around 7K) and it cost me 3,275 more giving me 2.5 - 1.

I decide to fold. My reasoning was that even though I’m getting good odds, I can’t be sure that my ten is live and it would leave me with about 1K. This was an “accumulate or die” kind of decision and I felt like I could pick better spots than this and could easily work with a 4,200 stack. However, had I known the blinds would be 200/400 next, my decision would likely be different.

Board: 9c 9d 4c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.822% 41.77% 00.05% 14886 19.50 { KcTc }
Hand 1: 58.178% 58.12% 00.05% 20715 19.50 { TT+, 88-77 }

<font color="red"> Correct Play: </font> I really need to call here. This is a good time to chip up and I’m getting the odds to do so. The biggest stack at the table had about 8K and this would put me in a dominate position. I’m okay if I fold, but if I call and win, I will be at 12,450.

What do you guys think?

[grafyx]

Once we get to the flop I think I like an open shove. Its 5200 into a 3k pot, so its a bit of an overbet, but I think you can get enough folds out of villian from missed overcards and small pairs to make it worthwhile. If you don't like an open shove, you can just make a pot sized bet of 3k which is clearly committing yourself to the pot. Whatever you think will look stronger to the villian.

[Cornell Fiji]

Every decission that you made was incorrect.

Fold pf the first time around. You are overthinking yourself and trying to make something happen because the villain is bad.

Fold pf the second time around. Putting in 15% of your stack with KTs is terrible.

The flop bet is laughable. I think this situation shows you why preflop was so bad. You hit a great flop and still can't play it properly.

I guess an open push is best here because AK/AQ might fold but you are getting looked up by TT+ and maybe more. A check-raise all in might be good in case the button makes a weak bet and he would not be calling for his tournament life. I don't really like either play though... just fold this cheese preflop

[betgo]

I think you have to call the push. You are 31-69 versus AA, which may be what villain has. The flush draw is a lot weaker versus an overpair with the paired board. Villain raised to 4xBB versus 2 limpers, so there is a good chance he has AA-QQ. It is possible he is just building the pot with position or doesn't know how much to raise.

You probably need to just bet out close to pot or push the flop.

Preflop, I don't think the initial limp is terrible. You could also fold or raise. I would probably fold to the raise as it looks like button is pricing you in and I don't think you have the implied odds.

[Jiggymike]

Limping with position on a poor player isn't terrible but you seem to be a little short to be limping with KTs. I would have folded to the first raise because your positional advantage is gone and I'm assuming a tight player is NOT raising light over 2 limpers. On flop you should open push or maybe c/r all in, I think pushing is best because you are givnig yourself a little more FE.

[hamnegger]

fold pf after the limp. push all in on flop. you are no worse than 2 to 1 to win this pot and may be favorite! add in the FE and this is easy play.

[DP388]

Am I doing something wrong here?

Based on:
Hand 0: 41.822% 41.77% 00.05% 14886 19.50 { KcTc }
Hand 1: 58.178% 58.12% 00.05% 20715 19.50 { TT+, 88-77 }

Stack Before Play $6,000.00

Hero Calls and Loses
Probability: 58.00%
Stack After Play: $925.00
Expectation: $536.50

Hero Calls and Wins
Probability: 42.00%
Stack After Play: $12,450.00
Expectation: $5,229.00

Total Expectation: $5,765.50
Total EV: -$234.50

I'm not factoring in the % of time I'm folding because I'm only trying to look at EV of winning vs. losing if I call.