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2 overcards + small draws: Mathematically incorrect to call an all-in?
1/2 no limit, 10 players
Relevant stacks: BB= 50 CO= 100 (Hero = K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]) Preflop: Hero raises to 6, BB calls Flop (T=$13): 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB checks, Hero bets 10, BB pushes, HERO? Reads: BB is a LAG. I read his push as having paired the flop. I have 2 overs, a gutshot, and a backdoor flush. That's 11 outs. (i count a backdoor as 1 out.) By rule of 4, i have a 44% to hit by the river, which is 2.27:1. $73 in the pot, $34 to call. With the dead $ in the pot, i'm getting 2.14:1. Yes, im reality it's close enuf that i should call. But mathematically, it's 2.27:1 to hit and the pot is only giving me 2.14:1, thus by math it's incorrect to call the all-in, right? Edit: I'm usually a SnG player. I'm not familiar w/post flop stuff. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] |
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