Shortstack hand from the Party Sunday Million

[uclabruinz]

Normally I say push.

But looking at the other stacks, will we really have THAT much less FE with 70k after going through the blinds then we do at 96k UTG? 70k is still going to make anyone at the table think twice before calling.

If the table has been tight, and you are relatively sure you'll have a chance to open push in the next five hands, it might be better to wait and hope to pick up a better hand and/or only have to shove through 1-4 players.

This is a tough, close decision.

It's not just our FE that makes me want to push here. We also happen to have a pretty decent hand to get our money in with.

[Luke]

It's certainly a close one. And it all really comes down to what kind of ranges your friend's opponents will call him with.

If 3 of those guys will call with a range like { AA-77, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo } and the remaining 6 are a little tighter and will only call with a range like { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo } then friend's CEV is slightly positive. If anymore enter into that looser range, than friend's CEV becomes negative.

However, if just one of the opponents is even looser than those ranges and will call with say { AA-22, AKs-A2s, KQs-K9s, QJs-QTs, JTs, AKo-A5o, KQo-KTo, QJo } than that will boost friend's CEV.

Or if there are a couple guys at the table that are ultra-tight and will only play { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }, then friend's CEV increases again.

The bottom line, in my opinion, is that on a "typical" table in this spot, say:
2 playing { AA-77, AKs-A9s, KQs-KJs, AKo-ATo, KQo }
5 playing { AA-99, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AQo }
2 playing { AA-JJ, AKs, AKo }

friend's CEV is very close, but it is positive, and I think this merits a PUSH.

Luke

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
well as usual this is completely dependent on calling assumptions, but I think semi-fair is the assumption that utg+1 folds 95% of the time, utg+1 94%, and so on, which, wow, puts the chances u get called at 1-(.95*.94*.93 etc..)= almost exactly 50%.....

so assuming that ur avarage gain/loss is (96000*6+32463+69010)/8= 84684...and for the moment assuming chip ev is somewhat the same as $ ev...

the breakeven point usuing

a=gain from fold equity
b=gain from getting called and winning
c=loss from getting called and losing
d=% of calls
x=% winning chances




0=(1-d)a+dbx-dc(1-x)
0=a-da+dbx-dc+dcx
dcx+dbx=dc+da-a
x(db+dc)=dc+da-a
x=(dc+da-a)/(db+dc)


x=41.85%....so if qjss is going to be 41.85% against the top 8% of hands or so, then you have a small push including the fact that u will be going through the blinds next and future ev gets crushed somewhat.

so asusming the 8% (1328*.08) or 106 hands include 77+,ak,aq,aj,atss, you have about 37% which makes it a fold.

OBVIOUSLY , AS I SAID, THIS IS 100% ROUGH AND ASSUMPTION BASED BUT its a starting point to understand how brutal it is to be utg having to get through 8 people.

I think that these assumptions are close though, and the question will depend on how much u really lose by going through the blinds...


sheets

ps sorry for typos...on way out the door.

[/ QUOTE ]

good post sheets

are you taking into account that the BB is probably going to be calling with any two, which we are way ahead of? Also, we are shoving UTG which means I think a lot of people are going to be folding hands like ATs, especially in the earlier positions and if they don't have a lot of chips to spare.

[JohnnyBax]

I think it is important to know what the hero's image is at the table. If he has been tight, I have no problem at all with his pushing here, especially since going through the blinds is gonna hurt. If he has been loose and reckless, I believe he has to wait for a better spot, and hope it comes.

Bax

[A_PLUS]

Sheets, I like the quick and dirty method you used.

I think you underestimated our equity gained when we are called. You only included the Blinds and Antes into the equity gained from F.E. portion. 3/4 of the time we are called (roughly), there will be that extra 27,600 in the pot. When we get this short, that changes things alot.

Given your methodology, and taking into account for blinds and antes somewhat (I am still being conservative)
a=27,600
b=100,000
c=96,000
d=.5

x=.34898

I think that is a safe benchmark for QJs, especially with a BB who should be calling with 100% here.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it is important to know what the hero's image is at the table. If he has been tight, I have no problem at all with his pushing here, especially since going through the blinds is gonna hurt. If he has been loose and reckless, I believe he has to wait for a better spot, and hope it comes.

Bax

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't mention this in the OP, but Hero has been very tight (hasn't played a hand in 2 orbits)

[sheetsworld]

a plus...yes u r right...again, this was done in about 4 minutes on the way out the door...certainly that makes a difference, although still its very close i think....

durron, yeah i go back and forth on whther the utg push get the extra respect u allude to...good players know thta the utgs range is pretty big if they are going through the blinds next...but as u said, ep callers risk getting reshoved or called by the people behind them....as for the bb calling with any 2...dont be so sure that he will, and u arent ahead of him enough to prefer that he call anyway.

all in all.ts a close call...but i am 100% sure that over the board I fold, in part because people expect me to push [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

sheets

ps...hero is tight as he hasnt played in 2 orbits? lol?
all the more reaosn why his push might be interpreted as desperate? 2 orbits is alot?

[locutus2002]

Fold instantly.

Look at everyone else's stacks. Look at how small the ante is. Hero has plenty of time with 6XBB. Better to get your chips in ahead.

[A_PLUS]

Is this table typical for the tournament in terms of stack sizes? I was under the assumption (maybe wrongly so) that this was a very short table. It doesnt matter that much, but it does effect my play.

Basically, the deeper the field is, the more likely I make this push (maybe with less than QJs).