Week 5 NCAAF Early Lines Thread

[iggymcfly]

That's a good point on LSU/Tulane. Classic sandwich game in between S. Carolina and Florida. I'm probably not going to play it at +40, but if it drifts up to 41 or 42 later in the week, I'll hop on.

[pirateboy]

That game, even without Flynn, could very very likely end 44-0 or something.

[dmoney416]

What I have so far:

Colorado St +13 (3.3u to win 3) - This line is 5 points off IMO.
Cincinnati -13 (2.2u to win 2)
Western Michigan -1 (2.2u to win 2)
Rutgers -13 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Akron +14 (-115) (1.725u to win 1.5)

GL to all this week.

[Austiger]

SDSU +15 -110
Maryland +16 -110

[dmoney416]

Colorado St +13 at TCU

TCU has scored 78 points in 4 games this season. This is not an especially alarming number considering it is just under 20 points per game. However, looking at their opponents, it becomes more of a concern. They have played Baylor (27 points), Texas (13), Air Force (17), and SMU (21). With the exception of Texas, this TCU team has gone up against 3 sub-par defenses and have failed to produce. Three of their scores have been defensive scores, and they only have three offensive TDs since week 1's win at Baylor. They scored one offensive TD against a hapless SMU defense and we all saw how they gave away the AF game despite 40 plays inside the AF territory in the 2nd half.

The TCU offense is basically hopeless outside of running back Aaron Brown, who returned in a limited capacity against SMU for 11 carries. They will ride him completely if he is able to go.

TCU will ride their defense, who has forced 9 turnovers through 4 games. Truth is though, every QB except for AF's Shaun Carney (193 yards) has thrown for over 200 yards on them so far this season. These QBs were ultimately doomed by turnovers, but they obviously have had some success.

Colorado St. comes in at 0-3 but has had one of the tougher starting schedules in the country. They faltered @Colorado in OT 31-28, lost to #10 Cal at home 34-28, and lost last week @Houston 38-27. Now they go to TCU, who is actually arguably the worst team that they have faced thus far. Kyle Bell leads a steady, grind it out rushing attack, but the strength of this team is QB Caleb Hanie and the passing game. He has completed 68.7% of his passes thus far, which includes an impressive 9.12 yards per attempt. He has 7 TDs compared to 4 INTs. They did lose TE Kory Sperry for the season, but they have a slew of WRs to pick up the slack. This an underrated passing attack and an offense that actually outgained Colorado and Cal in their losses. Hanie has thrown for 220+ in each of the first three, and he seems to be effective in the short and vertical passing game.

I feel that Hanie will do enough to keep this team in the game. TCU's offense simply can not cover this spread on their own. Unless CSU hands them points, I think this stays close the whole way.

TCU 20
Colorado St. 17

[dmoney416]

Cincinnati (-13) at San Diego St

I didn't plan on touching this game. I thought this was a fairly easy line to set. -17 seemed very correct to me, but I have to bite at under two TDs.

Now, I realize that this is basically the worst situational spot possible for the Bearcats. They have a cross-country road trip the week before conference play starts. The first conference game is @Rutgers where Rutgers is in a revenge spot. However, I feel Cincy has enough to take control in this game.

San Diego St suffered massive defensive losses after last season (they still gave up 27 ppg last season) and as a result, this team has no real semblance of a defense. SDSU gave up 654 yards to Washington St. (and 45 points), 479 yards to Arizona St. (and 34 points), and 458 to I-AA Portland St. (and 17 points). Both Washington St. and Portland St. threw for over 400 yards against them. While Cincy's spread attack does not have the same effectiveness as Arizona St's or Washington St's, they have a more effective defense and should be able to contain the Aztecs.

San Diego St only scored 14 ppg last season. With nine guys returning, this offense has improved, but some of their numbers are deceiving.

- Kevin O'Connell is 69-113 for 896 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INT on the season. 443 of these yards and 5 of these TDs came against Portland St.
- RB Brandon Bornes has 37 carries for 184 yards (5.0 avg) on the season. Much of this were on 59 yard and 41 yard runs. Take these away, and he has 35 carries for 84 yards. He was shut down against Portland St. with 39 yards on 18 carries.
- WR Brett Swain has 16 catches, 336 yards (21.0 avg), and 3 TDs on the year. He had 6 receptions for 224 yards and 3 TDs against Portland St. This includes 75 yard, 53 yard, and 30 yard catches.

Not trying to take credit away from their improving offense, but they obviously will not be able to do the things against Cincy that they did against Portland St.

The story remained the same for Cincy this week, a 40-14 win sparked by defense and turnovers. Bernard Morris actually played quite well, but Cincy held when it mattered. Expect more of the same this week.

The formula for this game is simple. Much of SDSU's success has come against Portland St. They have yet to see a defense close to the caliber of Cincinnati's. While SDSU has faced more prolific offenses, I feel that Cincy will have enough to make their mark. Given SDSU's pass D so far, I am confident that either Mauk or Grutza can do the job this week. It wouldn't surprise to see Cincy sleepwalk early on, but they should rebound for a comfortable victory.

Cincinnati 37
San Diego St. 14

[Austiger]

2 reasons I bet SDSU +15 vs. Cincy:

1. Cincy is overrated. This is mainly because of the Oregon State game and their +15 in turnover margin (1st in the country.) They are a good team who has caught a lot of breaks. Everything has gone their way this year. I distinctly remember the Oregon St. game where one fluke after another gave Cincy good results (Oregon St. had 80 more total yards and lost by 31.) Yes they are a good team and yes good teams make their own luck...but not to the tune of +4 turnovers a game.

2. Difference in motivation. For SDSU, this is probably their best chance to beat a ranked team and get on Sportscenter, maybe ever. For Cincy, this is a no-name opponent in a crappy stadium the week before the biggest game maybe in their program's history. Cincy is surely to be overconfident. When things go your way every game, you forget about adversity. It's human nature.

I don't expect an upset, but 15 points is a lot to give a team that isn't used to avoiding trap games the week before their undefeated clash against Rutgers. Plus, road favorites are sketchy to begin with.

How about a middle?

Cincy 31
SDSU 17

[dmoney416]

A middle is fine with me and I completely understand the basis behind betting SDSU here. I had no plans on betting this game as I see that it is a horrendous spot for Cincy. At 13 though I just felt that it was too low. Your points are valid and correct, but I just feel that SDSU has not seen a D of this caliber yet, and they have had a difficult time stopping anyone.

There are definitely arguments for both sides here. GL this week.

[NajdorfDefense]

I like Cincy but line seems high. Avoiding.

[Ichabod1985]

USF +7 3 Units
Clemson -3 1 Unit
Indiana +11 1 Unit
Indiana ML (+325) 1 Unit
Michigan -16.5 1 Unit
FAU +23.5 2 Units
Michigan St +7 1 Unit
California +5.5 2 Units
UL Lafayette +21.5 2 Units
Notre Dame +21.5 3 Units