CutCreators Week 2 Picks

CutCreator · #1 09-14-2007, 02:31 PM

YTD 6-2-0 (+4u)

1u Colts -7 (-102) over Titans My view is that the Colts beat a good team that did not play well (Saints) and the Titans beat an average team last week (Jags). The Titans have played the Colts tough in the past, but this Titans team I dont think is as good.

3u Bengals -6.5 (-108) over Browns This really has nothing to do with the Ravens/Bengals game last week for me. It has everything to do with the Bengals all world offense and how awful the Browns are and have been. And while the Bengals D is a joke, they can get turnovers and with the Browns QB situation in shambles I love this game. I dont like to throw around the term lock but this is one.

1u Seahawks -2.5 (-105) over Cards I dont love this game honestly, however when I set my own line for it (I have only been doing that for 2 years so I am a total noob and its possible I just dont know what the hell i am doing yet) there was 2.5 point difference (-5). I dont buy the Cards and while I dont love Seattle, I do like like the fact that the Cards are coming off a short week and that they have yet to prove if there are any good.

1u 49ers ML (+105) over Rams In the last 3 seasons the Rams are 1-6 ATS in games where they are favored 3.5-9.5 points, and are 1-5 ATS in home games where the total is 42.5 and 45 points. Also I like the 49ers this year, I like them much better than the other popular sleeper teams like the Cards, Lions, etc.

1u Saints -3.5 (+100) over Bucs Im not going to jump off the Sants bandwagon after 1 loss to a Super Bowl team. The Bucs will likely be awful unless you think Garcia last year was anything other than a product of a good system run by the Eagles.

jhennis · #2 09-14-2007, 02:48 PM

With you on Colts, Bengals, and Saints. GL

alwardc4 · #3 09-14-2007, 02:52 PM

Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

jhennis · #4 09-14-2007, 03:06 PM

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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

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go put your money on the browns and titans then

flavius · #5 09-14-2007, 03:34 PM

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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

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go put your money on the browns and titans then

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Seriously, whoever cant see the cincy game as a lock is just being an ass. I really like the 49ers game too. Now that Tye Hill is out and Fakhir brown being suspended that means they are without their #1 and 2 CBs, thats HUGE. Pace is out indefinitely and I think Tinoisamoa is sitting as well. The niners CBs held boldin and Fitz to 20yrds a piece. With two legitimate shutdown corners now how much better can Holt and Bruce fare?

CutCreator · #6 09-14-2007, 03:43 PM

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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

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i have been searching the net and was wondering if there is a site that can give me the stats for road favs ats for the past 3-10 years.

do most professionals agree on this point that road favs are -ev?

alwardc4 · #7 09-14-2007, 03:56 PM

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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have been searching the net and was wondering if there is a site that can give me the stats for road favs ats for the past 3-10 years.

do most professionals agree on this point that road favs are -ev?

[/ QUOTE ]

From 1990-2005 home dogs getting 7 are 35-26-1 ATS. But I'm sure its impossible that any of those were "locks". I mean how often does a slightly above average team "only" give a touchdown on the road against a bad team?

Poker_is_Hard · #8 09-14-2007, 04:07 PM

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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

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That is why I took Cleveland last week. That did not turn out too well.

However, I feel odd now picking against Cleveland getting even more pts than last week.

livin_a_lie · #9 09-14-2007, 04:08 PM

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With you on Colts, Bengals, and Saints. GL

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You and a billion other people. Someone is gonna get pounded this week, the books or the squares. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

CutCreator · #10 09-14-2007, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
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Don't like any of them but gl. Road favs generally are bad bets.

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That is why I took Cleveland last week. That did not turn out too well.

However, I feel odd now picking against Cleveland getting even more pts than last week.

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you guys are speaking another language to me. i dont think i could have taken the Browns last week if i was held at gun point.

Now the line is at 7, and will be at 8 soon from what I have read. I understand staying away at that point.

However can you make the argument that the Bengals offense is 2 points better than the Steelers? The line was 4.5, at least thats what I got in on for the Steelers/Browns game.