AAPL

[SlowHabit]

The stock is currently overvalued (P/E ratio too high and we do know if the iPhone will pull a Zune). The current price is up 10% in the last 2 days from the hype created by the iPhone.

It is too risky to get into now. I don't have to worry about that because I got in a bit sooner (thinly veiled brag?), which is funny because if my "company evaluation" knowledge is what it is know, I wouldn't buy AAPL in the first place!

The paradox situation is if I feel it's too risky to get into now, should I sell the stock or should I take a risk and ride to wherever the hype takes me to? And of course, what IF the iPhone pulls an iPod instead of a Zune?

[gull]

If it's too risky to buy, then it's too risky not to sell. In other words, sell as long as the transaction costs (commissions, taxes) aren't large relative to your investment.

[Osprey]

I've never been a believer. I've thought it's been overvalued a long time (I was in in the 50s and 60s and dumped in the 70s). All it's going to take is one less than rosy quarter for this puppy to tank- granted that could be in a year or more, who knows with these things. Personally, I am not impressed by the really expensive phone.

[all_in_lam]

ya i think you should sell, especially with lawsuit from CISCO, it is bound to drop several % by week's end.

but i do think the iphone will bring in profit for the comapany, it seems pretty well built and obviously well marketed. perhaps sell/rebuy would be good if the commission is feasible for the volume you are purchasing.

anybody buying short in light of the lawsuit?

[KDuff]

The iphone/zune comparison is not fair. The zune was a drop in the bucket for MSFT's potential revenues, whereas an iphone would open up considerable revenue growth for AAPL. Moreover, AAPL has credibility with portable electronics and handsets, which was not one of MSFT's established business areas.

I've held AAPL since it was at 43 and don't plan to sell for quite some time. The specter of a CSCO lawsuit is largely inconsequential if you look previous arrangements AAPL has negotiated when it has conflicts with trademarks (eg Apple Corp). I can't predict AAPL's short term price action, but I think it has a much better chance of hitting 120 before it goes down to 60.

[Osprey]

Now it's looking like Jobs benefited from the options deal.... more shadows...

[blindside]

I was a shareholder for a few years and closed out my position in aapl a few months back just because of the options backdating. The valuation was also a big concern for me and didn't think anything at MacWorld could propel this stock. I guess I was wrong on that last part.

Anyway, from most observations that I've been reading, the iPhone looks like a great product. The only gripes people have are with the touchscreen keyboard which is kind of awkward if you think about it. We won't know until it actually gets released which won't be for awhile.

There are lofty expectations built into the stock. iTV and the iPhone are going to have to do well and any sort of hiccup is going to reflect in the stock price. I personally don't think the iTV will do much, I think Microsoft has got it right with the 360 but is marketing it totally wrong.

If you have a small position, I would just let it ride because there are tax implications especially if it's a short term investment. If it's a fairly large position, there's nothing wrong with taking some off the table if you still want a piece of this company. IMO, there are much better opportunities in the market than speculating which is what I felt holding at these prices would amount to.

[ayamaguc]

At the moment, Apple is not an investment-- it's a momentum vehicle. Apple is THE go-go growth stock of the current markets. As one of the only companies able to enter markets with PRICING POWER, it's everyone's talisman for excitement and bullishness. It's all about feel and emotion now.

That means that you need to gauge not just how the company will do, but how the mob will react to the news. Both parts are difficult in different ways, and usually for different types of people.

So you gotta figure how you want to play that. If this was your first/only investment and a huge homerun, nothing wrong with taking a little off and diversifying. If you're ready for that.