100 NL pair+fd 175 bbs deep

[HiBaCHi]

opponent is 26/19 and pretty damn aggro post flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($21.30)
CO ($100)
Hero ($174.10)
SB ($99)
BB ($229.60)
UTG ($175.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $7</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $25</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $171.1</font>, Hero ????

like i said this guy was aggro but also seemed pretty competant. the shove confused me a bit. it doesn't really make sense for him to shove any hand here besides maybe a big fd or 6c7c. if he's one of those that is shoving both big made hands and big draws depending on what he thinks a big draw is i don't like the call. what does everyone else think?

[drewvy]

i can't see a fold...against a set we're almost 1:1 to win and with the exception of exactly 67c..we have most draws crushes though an aggro villain could play KQc this way...

[sublime]

Hand 0: 56.458% 56.47% 00.01% 228450 51.50 { AA, 88, 55, AKs, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 7c6c, AKo }

Hand 1: 43.543% 43.55% 00.01% 176197 51.50 { 5c4c }


this range seem accurate?

the ace of clubs being out and you having a pair means you should never be crushed.

[HiBaCHi]

[ QUOTE ]
i can't see a fold...against a set we're almost 1:1 to win and with the exception of exactly 67c..we have most draws crushes though an aggro villain could play KQc this way...

[/ QUOTE ]

we don't have other draws crushed. it is a coinflip w/ any fd+overs hand

[HiBaCHi]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 0: 56.458% 56.47% 00.01% 228450 51.50 { AA, 88, 55, AKs, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 7c6c, AKo }

Hand 1: 43.543% 43.55% 00.01% 176197 51.50 { 5c4c }


this range seem accurate?

the ace of clubs being out and you having a pair means you should never be crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

that range is seems optimistic. i don't discount him overplaying AK like this, but including it as that big of a % of his range is not correct imo. other people's thoughts on this?

[sublime]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Hand 0: 56.458% 56.47% 00.01% 228450 51.50 { AA, 88, 55, AKs, KcQc, KcJc, QcJc, 7c6c, AKo }

Hand 1: 43.543% 43.55% 00.01% 176197 51.50 { 5c4c }


this range seem accurate?

the ace of clubs being out and you having a pair means you should never be crushed.

[/ QUOTE ]

that range is seems optimistic. i don't discount him overplaying AK like this, but including it as that big of a % of his range is not correct imo. other people's thoughts on this?

[/ QUOTE ]

thats fair.

then take the AK out, resim and weight the range 2:1.


Hand 0: 65.293% 65.31% 00.03% 142382 69.50 { AA, 88, 55, KcQc, QcJc, 7c6c }
Hand 1: 34.706% 34.70% 00.03% 75653 69.50 { 5c4c }

so if you think he doesnt have AK that often, assume your equity is

43+34*2/3 = 37%

[Speedlimits]

easy fold.

[sublime]

also why wouldnt he play his monsters (76c sets) and ok hands (AK) the same if hes 'really' aggressive postflop? i think 40% equity is a fair compromise and then its just a math solution as to whether to call.

[sublime]

upon further thought, suited aces that hit two pair need to be included in his range and i think not accounting for AK enough is a mistake. a 3/2 weighting would be better. in that case

42 (with auited aces)*2+36*3/5 = 38.4% equity which without checkign the pot/call seems like a fold.