Fold 2348 before first draw?

[Enon]

UB 30/60 6 handed

I have 2348 in bb and utg bad player raises, good tight winning player reraises right after and complete unknown caps from button. If I call do I ditch the 8?

[*TT*]

Good question.

Part of me wants to call because you are most likely drawing smoother than your opponents. Do your best to not bloat the pot too much, it could get expensive if someone is pat with a better hand.

The other part of me says I don't know if calling is a profitable move, but when you factor in your implied odds if you end up with the winner then although I assume its a +EV call I am not 100% sure because I haven't worked on the the math for this scenario yet. When developing the formula I think its wise to discount outs because its blatantly obvious your opponents are holding many of the key cards necessary to complete the hero's hand, but then the question becomes how many outs should we discount? Should we assume each out is only worth 1/2 of its original value?

Unfortunately discounting outs is probably a guessing game at this point unless there are some strategies from Kansas City Lowball that I am not familiar with.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[DeathDonkey]

I'd call and draw one at your 8 perfect and tread very cautiously.

-DeathDonkey

[Xellos]

At first I was going to reply saying this was an easy call. Then I thought it over and was going to say I thought it was closer to a fold. Then I thought it over even harder and I've come to the conclusion that it probably doesn't matter whether you fold or call and draw to the 8. I think calling and drawing to 234 would be bad though. If you were in some magical situation where you had 1 bet in there on the button and it was a cap to you I think it would be an easier call in position. You're getting 13:3 basically since it can't be 5bet behind you and nobody is folding, so the only real downside to participating here is that you're OOP for the rest of the hand, which always sucks, but it's still quite likely that you are either slightly ahead or slightly behind only 1 or maybe 2 of your opponents and ahead of 1 or 2, but you get to put in 1 less bet than the rest of them have.

In situations where it's close between passing and playing, playing is always the option that's more fun.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]
When developing the formula I think its wise to discount outs because its blatantly obvious your opponents are holding many of the key cards necessary to complete the hero's hand, but then the question becomes how many outs should we discount? Should we assume each out is only worth 1/2 of its original value?

[/ QUOTE ]

Calculating how many outs are likely to be dead is simply a matter of estimating your opponent's hand range and counting the average for each card. Tedious but not necessarily hard, similar to Harrington's "structured hand analysis". I worked this up in a spreadsheet earlier.

Say you're up against a single opponent whom you put on the Negreanu-ish opening-hand range of
Pat 8 or better
1-card draw to a 7 with a deuce
1-card draw to an 8 with a 3 or 2
ww2
6w2
762
8w2 (but not 862)

Then the expected number of outs held by your opponent are:
2: 0.98 (Not that he is 98% likely to hold a deuce, but that the expected number of deuces in his hand are 0.98.)
3: 0.53
4: 0.48
5: 0.48
6: 0.44
7: 0.43
8: 0.44

So if you are heads up, you know 5 of your cards. (These cards unfortunately affect the distribution of your opponent's hands. This too can be taken into account if you care enough. For example, if you hold an 8 and a 3 it makes others somewhat more likely to have 7 draws instead of 8 draws given the range above.) Your opponent's 5 cards, since you are taking their distribution into account, must also be subtracted from the cards remaining.

So if you hold 7542K, say, then you know that of the remaining 42 cards you can expect 3.5 "3"'s and 3.55 "6"'s to remain.

If you know, for example, that your opponent only reraises with a 1-card draw or that he limps in with a 762, you might be able to narrow the hand range and arrive at slightly different values.

I feel that the estimate of a half out per opponent card is not too bad--- except for deuces, of course.

Doing the actual calculation for multiple players would be even more tedious, but I will go out on a limb here and say that in the 8432 example we can expect about 2.5 live 5's and 2.5 live 6's, or about 5 outs to a strong pat hand (in 32 cards.) But of course our hero most likely faces redraws from at least one 7 draw out there so his effective outs are even lower.

[DeathDonkey]

You rule Mark.

-DeathDonkey