Flopped set, coordinated board

[Dave I]

Villain is about 80/20. A total LAG borderline maniac. He will fold most of the time if he misses but is capable of raising and pushing with air or on semi-bluff. But generally, his raises and pushes are with what he thinks are the goods (> 1 pair). He over-values and over-plays his hands constantly. He will chase with as little as a gutshot. Basically, it is difficult to put him on a hand.

Absolute NL .10BB 6-max (4 players)

Seat 4 - UTG+1 ($13.22 in chips)
Seat 6 - Villain ($13.08 in chips)
Seat 8 - Hero ($30.55 in chips)
Seat 3 - UTG ($4.20 in chips)
Villain - Posts small blind $0.05
Hero - Posts big blind $0.10

*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]]
UTG - Calls $0.10
UTG+1 - Folds
Villain - Calls $0.05
<font color="red">Hero - Raises $0.30 to $0.40</font>
UTG - Calls $0.30
Villain - Calls $0.30

*** FLOP *** [10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] ($1.20)
Villain - Checks
<font color="red">Hero - Bets $1.20</font>
UTG - Folds
Villain - Calls $1.20

*** TURN *** [10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]] [2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($3.60)
Villain - Checks
<font color="red">Hero - Bets $4</font>
<font color="blue">This bet will not scare him if he has a hand he likes. Given the flop call, I assume he does but I know I am ahead. </font>
Villain - Calls $4

*** RIVER *** [10 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] [K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]] ($11.60)
Villain - Checks
Hero ????

Given this opponent, I was torn between checking behind or value betting. QJ or even something like 10x [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] are very possible holdings.

[sniplert]

If you can't put him on a hand and he's a LAG, you probably shouldn't make a value bet. Your value bet might cause villain to push all-in. That's a big price to pay if you can't put him on a hand - he could have been chasing a flush or a straight.

[Jouster777]

I like a check behind here.

He's calling looking for something and the river is a horrible card for you. If he didn't improve he folds most of the time. If he hit his flush and probably with a straight you will face a push.

Best case, he calls a value bet with: Ax, A2, or 10s over.

Say you value bet $4 (leaving him with only $4 more). He folds the majority of the time and you are no better off. Of the remaining instances, say he calls 50% of the time (assume you win) and pushes 50% (assume you call $4 more and lose 90% of the time - would he push with K10?) 50% of time, calls. When he acts, you gain $4 half the time and lose $7.20 the other half of the time.

In this scenario you need 2x as many calls as pushes to be +EV