QQ set: river action NLCASH

[SlowRoll]

So, i'm starting to get into heads up, this is my first post here.

Vil. was 60/47.

We hadn't played too many pots at this point, but he seemed pretty bad: loose preflop calls, light flop calls ect.

The only hand getting to showdown prior was this:

Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $403
Hero (SB): $419

Pre-Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, BB calls $8

Flop: ($24) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, BB calls $15

Turn: ($54) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($54) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $32</font>, Hero calls $32

Results: $118 Pot ($0.50 Rake)
BB showed 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (a pair of Sixes) and LOST (-$59 NET)
Hero showed 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (a pair of Nines) and WON $117.50 (+$58.50 NET)

So, onto the hand:

I'm betting relatively small on the flop, as i think he would call with a lot of hands.

Question is obv river, and given his small bet i'm not folding. But push or call?


Full Tilt Poker, $2/$4 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $424.50
Hero (SB): $394.50

Pre-Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (SB)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $12</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $20</font>, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($40) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $28</font>, BB calls $28

Turn: ($96) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
BB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $70</font>, BB calls $70

River: ($236) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">BB bets $84</font>, Hero ?

[PrimordialAA]

umm, im not much of a HU cash player, but for &lt; half pot I think im calling here, he could have hit a 2nd pair with his Ace, he could have done a ton of things, JJ and the flush are obv your only real fears here... but I think it's actually pretty close, this one is tough, but I think im calling and kicking myself, but don't take my word for it, ask someone who plays 100bb deep ;p

[Upright Citizen]

Well, like you said, you aren't folding.

The only flush I see him hitting there that makes any sense at all is KdQd, and even that is played lousy. But if you push, what does he make the call with that you beat?

In the end, I think I just call here. He either hit is hand and is letting you get off cheap, or is weak and looking to fold to any aggression.

[holdme]

if youve been aggressive then raise it. a lot of metagame consideration

[Wu36]

I'd like to shove, but since he hasn't shown any remotely thin value bets yet (if hes thinking the q6 is clearly a bluff) I think calling is best.

Hmm, just noticed preflop. That could definitely add some big aces and aces up hands to his vbing range. I think shoving is ok (he can now plausibly have a bunch of TP+ hands you beat and stacks/history indicate hes pretty aggro), but I couldn't fault anyone for calling.

[dpdawson]

Hands that might call if you raise/push:

Good: AK, AQ, AJ

Bad: AA, JJ, 88, any flush

Is he re-raising you a lot preflop? If so, AA, JJ, and 88 become smaller parts of his range.

It seems like a normal Villain would have re-raised with AA, 88, AK, and/or maybe AQ at some point along the line, so I would discount those.

The only previous hand he bet a river scare card with a hand he would have folded had you raised, so you know he could be betting with air here.

Overall, it looks like he's either representing the flush and will fold to a raise, has the flush and is beating you, or spiked trips with his JJ and is beating you. The only hand I can see him playing this way a lot that you want to see if you raise is AJ.

Opponent looks weak and it looks like I am taking his stack eventually, so I just call, rather than pay him off with my whole stack when I might be behind and there is a good chance I am not getting any more money if I am ahead.

[xSCWx]

I was strongly thinking this was a call, but I am leaning towards a shove now.

This definitely looks like more of a block than a value bet unless you have a read that says otherwise.

[shipurstack]

arrrr in

[jay_shark]

Pretty interesting hand .

Let us say he may have the following hands which is being generous :

{10-qd,10-kd,10-Ad,q-kd q-Ad,k-Ad } which consists of about 6 flush hands . He may also have a set of j's ,8's or aces which is another 3+3+3=9 more hands . Likewise , he may have two-pair like A-8,A-j or even a set of 3's which is 3*3 + 3*3 +3 = 21 hands . In total there are more hands you beat than you lose with .

So according to this estimation, raising the river looks a bit better than calling the river under the constraints given .

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]

Opponent looks weak and it looks like I am taking his stack eventually, so I just call, rather than pay him off with my whole stack when I might be behind and there is a good chance I am not getting any more money if I am ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you think you are the favorite if he calls you then it's imperative you raise/shove all in now. If you can take his stack now , you should try to accomplish this sooner than later .