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#11
09-15-2007, 04:57 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
[ QUOTE ]
also something to bear in mind: people are much more likely to come here and say "is this a good winrate?" if they have been running hot. Really, you should measure your winrate over the next 50k hands or whatever, not the last 50k. [/ QUOTE ] yes, and again the table i posted can't tell you what your winrate actually *is*, only how probable or improbable your run is for a given winrate. 
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#12
09-15-2007, 10:29 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
[ QUOTE ]
Thanks guys. So what is a reasonable number of hands to judge longterm winrates then? [/ QUOTE ] All good stuff in this thread. But I think the basic answer is that it's pretty much impossible to use older data from your poker database to predict what your true winrate is mostly as it relates to looking forward. Time is much better spent with Pokertracker and PokerEV analyzing your play and making sure that you are getting your money into the big pots as a favorite and that you don't have any leaks in smaller and midsized pots.
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#13
09-15-2007, 01:32 PM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Thanks guys. So what is a reasonable number of hands to judge longterm winrates then? [/ QUOTE ] All good stuff in this thread. But I think the basic answer is that it's pretty much impossible to use older data from your poker database to predict what your true winrate is mostly as it relates to looking forward. [/ QUOTE ] I understand this sentiment, but it's not strictly true. Past winrate obviously correlates to your "true" or "future" winrate pretty strongly, and more and more so as your number of hands played increases.
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#14
09-15-2007, 06:40 PM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
One interesting way of looking at this is that the common view on what NLHE guys make is 3-4 PTBB/100, at least once they get to semi-sentient limits. SO if you are making more than this, it was better you played PLO than NLHE at least.
gl bdd
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#15
09-20-2007, 07:41 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
Good thread.
I have acouple of question. First, pete: If I supposedly have run at 28 BB/100 for 5k hands, what are my likely winrate-interval based on your table? I didn't quite get your explanation. Second, what is PokerEv, and is it useful?
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#16
09-20-2007, 08:22 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
can anyone calculate or estimate the standard deviation after adjusting the winnings with the pokerev program? standard deviation should go down a lot and you should be a lot more precise in you estimated winrate.
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#17
09-20-2007, 09:37 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
I don't think the adjusted winnings in the PokerEV luck graph actually tends to your true winrate (I think Pete said something like this too recently). According to Phil the author, doing the calculations the more natural way (you get lucky or unlucky for the whole pot) is also subject to bias, but I don't see how.
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#18
09-20-2007, 09:39 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
Just to make to make you notice that the standard deviation/100 given by PT is false. PT calculate the SD related to a session and not to 100 hands and divide by the number of the session to give the SD which is not at all correct. I sorry if you all not this but I thought it might help. This subject has been greatly discussed in the SSNL forum and I think was first discovered by Pokey.
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#19
09-20-2007, 09:53 AM
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Re: whats a solid BB/100 ratio for Omaha?
Is this a recent bug discovery, or a change in the way PT calculates SD? I'm pretty sure Pokertracker Pat posted to say it was calculated on a hand-by-hand basis.
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