***August Fantasy Baseball Thread***

[Cortz]

thanks high

[Kneel B4 Zod]

Wanted to get some thoughts on keeper values for future seasons. I won’t be making final decisions until the spring, but future values affect present trade values, so I wanted to make sure I was thinking about this right.

15 team 7 (HR/RBI/R/AVG/S/TB/K) x 5 (standard) mixed league. $250 draft cap. Key variable: each team kept 3 exactly 3 guys coming into the year, and none of these 45 guys can be kept for next year. So, lots of marquee guys will be available. This year, we can sign as many guys as we want to contracts with $3 yearly inflation. No limit on length.

They key I think is to maximize my value for each guy. This means that if I keep a guy for $10, he a) needs to be clearly worth more than that and b) he would have cost more than that in the open market of next years draft. The first is relatively easy to forecast, the second is not.

Here is a rough sketch for my plan…anything look bad?

Name / cost for next year / cost for year after (if blank, I would sign him for 1 year only)


Corey Hart / 4 / 7
Kelly Johnson / 4 / 7
Tim Lincecum / 9 / 12
Yovani Gallardo / 9
Shane Victorino / 10

Questionable contracts:

Boof Bonser / 4
Brad Penny / 6
Akinoru Otsuka / 5
Matt Capps / 9
Chris B. Young / 19 (am I crazy to even consider this?)

Thoughts: I am straddling the line between value and risk by signing only the best values to 2 year deals. Gallardo & Victorino should be good values at 9 & 10 next year, but maybe too risky for a 2 year deal?

From the other guys, Bonser is probably an ok value at 4, but might not cost much more than that in the draft? With Penny, I guess this depends how he finishes. With Otsuka & Capps, it depends on their closer status for next year. I don’t want to spend lots of draft money on closers, and these guys might be ok values? For reference, junky closers like Salomon Torres went for 5 in this years draft.

[SL__72]

Is Scott Baker available? He might be worth more then Boof and cheaper to keep...?

/edit Penny at 6 seems decent. I'd keep an eye on Young. Since the break he has an OPS of ~.850, although that is pretty SLG% dominated.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
Is Scott Baker available? He might be worth more then Boof and cheaper to keep...?

[/ QUOTE ]

Baker was undrafted and was picked up as a free agent, who all cost $6. so he would be $9 next year, compared to Bonser for $4

[pauliewalnuts]

Looking ahead toward the next few years, how much better of an option( if at all) is Beltran than Granderson? My league counts total bases as well as the standard 5 categories.

Where do you project these 2 are drafted in mixed leagues next season?

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
Wanted to get some thoughts on keeper values for future seasons. I won’t be making final decisions until the spring, but future values affect present trade values, so I wanted to make sure I was thinking about this right.

15 team 7 (HR/RBI/R/AVG/S/TB/K) x 5 (standard) mixed league. $250 draft cap. Key variable: each team kept 3 exactly 3 guys coming into the year, and none of these 45 guys can be kept for next year. So, lots of marquee guys will be available. This year, we can sign as many guys as we want to contracts with $3 yearly inflation. No limit on length.

They key I think is to maximize my value for each guy. This means that if I keep a guy for $10, he a) needs to be clearly worth more than that and b) he would have cost more than that in the open market of next years draft. The first is relatively easy to forecast, the second is not.

Here is a rough sketch for my plan…anything look bad?

Name / cost for next year / cost for year after (if blank, I would sign him for 1 year only)


Corey Hart / 4 / 7
Kelly Johnson / 4 / 7
Tim Lincecum / 9 / 12
Yovani Gallardo / 9
Shane Victorino / 10

Questionable contracts:

Boof Bonser / 4
Brad Penny / 6
Akinoru Otsuka / 5
Matt Capps / 9
Chris B. Young / 19 (am I crazy to even consider this?)

Thoughts: I am straddling the line between value and risk by signing only the best values to 2 year deals. Gallardo & Victorino should be good values at 9 & 10 next year, but maybe too risky for a 2 year deal?

From the other guys, Bonser is probably an ok value at 4, but might not cost much more than that in the draft? With Penny, I guess this depends how he finishes. With Otsuka & Capps, it depends on their closer status for next year. I don’t want to spend lots of draft money on closers, and these guys might be ok values? For reference, junky closers like Salomon Torres went for 5 in this years draft.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll take a closer look later. I've got two questions right now. Do you have to commit to two years and then throw them back or is it a year to year thing? Second, and most important, how on earth did Chris Young go for $16 and Corey Hart only $1? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[rwperu34]

[ QUOTE ]
Looking ahead toward the next few years, how much better of an option( if at all) is Beltran than Granderson? My league counts total bases as well as the standard 5 categories.

Where do you project these 2 are drafted in mixed leagues next season?

[/ QUOTE ]

Beltran is better, but not by as much as people thought coming into this year. Off the top of my head, I'd say Beltran is a weak #1 outfielder and Granderson is a solid #2. That's probably about a round or two worth of difference, although it's really hard to tell at this point. If you are thinking about trading one for the other, go for Beltran (once he's healthy). If you have both and need to trade one, trade whoever gets you the biggest return.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you have to commit to two years and then throw them back or is it a year to year thing?

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to commit in the offseason. once a contract is complete, the player will go back into the draft pool. I believe that if I cut a guy before his contract is complete (ie I sign Corey Hart to a 3 year deal but cut him next year) I will lose $3 (just the inflation amount, not the whole contract value) in draft money for each of the next 2 years. I think that's how it works, anyways, this is our first year in this format.

[ QUOTE ]
how on earth did Chris Young go for $16 and Corey Hart only $1?

[/ QUOTE ]

no idea. very early in the season I traded $16 Cole Hamels for $1 Hart and $3 Anthony Reyes, and almost every owner thought I was the biggest idiot in the world (except slothinator and james282). that trade really could have been highway robbery for me if Reyes came close to his PECOTA, but even as is I think it worked out in my favor.

[pauliewalnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Looking ahead toward the next few years, how much better of an option( if at all) is Beltran than Granderson? My league counts total bases as well as the standard 5 categories.

Where do you project these 2 are drafted in mixed leagues next season?

[/ QUOTE ]

Beltran is better, but not by as much as people thought coming into this year. Off the top of my head, I'd say Beltran is a weak #1 outfielder and Granderson is a solid #2. That's probably about a round or two worth of difference, although it's really hard to tell at this point. If you are thinking about trading one for the other, go for Beltran (once he's healthy). If you have both and need to trade one, trade whoever gets you the biggest return.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks man. Where do you rank them both in relation to Alex Rios?

[duracell]

I'm in an NL-only auction keeper league ($26.00 in salary). I have a decent chance of making the money this year, but no shot at first or second place.

I have a chance to trade for Hanley Ramirez by trading away some good, but overpriced players that I would not keep beyond this year. The current proposed trade is:

Pujols ($4.50)
Smoltz ($3.00)
Vizquel ($0.20) - cannot keep beyond this year

for

Hanley Ramirez ($1.80 for the next three years or $2.10 for the next four years)
Dmitri Young (could not keep beyond this year)
Mike Pelfrey ($0.10)

Is this giving up too much? Is sacrificing money this year for Hanley a good idea?

He also has Matt Cain ($1.30). I could try to throw in Kaz Matsui ($0.30-a keeper next year) instead of Vizquel to try to get Cain instead of Pelfrey. I'm not sure he would do this, though.

Thoughts?