Post deleted by Mat Sklansky

[ArturiusX]

Sure. http://www.pineapplwatch.com . Just a little something to work on my writing, and comment on a few ideas I see coming up.

Here's something I have stuck on my wall, which is from Market Wizards:

[ QUOTE ]
1. All successful traders use methods that suit their personality; You are neither Waren Buffett nor George Soros nor Jesse Livermore; Don't assume you can trade like them.

2. What the market does is beyond your control; Your reaction to the market, however, is not beyond your control. Indeed, its the ONLY thing you can control.

3. To be a winner, you have to be willing to take a loss;


4. HOPE is not a word in the winning Trader's vocabulary;

5. When you are on a losing streak -- and you will eventually find yourself on one -- reduce your position size;

6. Don't underestimate the time it takes to succeed as a trader -- it takes 10 years to become very good at anything;

7. Trading is a vocation -- not a hobby

8. Have a business/trading plan;


9. Identify your greatest weakness, Be honest -- and DEAL with it

10. There are times when the best thing to do is nothing; Learn to recognize these times

11. Being a great trader is a process. It's a race with no finish line.

12. Other people's opinions are meaningless to you; Make your own trading decisions

13. Analyze your past trades. Study what happened to the stocks after you closed the position. Consider your P&L game tapes and go over them the way Vince Lombardi reviewed past Superbowls

14. Excessive leverage can knock you out of the game permanently

15. The Best traders continue to learn -- and adapt to changing conditions

16. Don't just stand there and let the truck roll over you

17. Being wrong is acceptable -- staying wrong is unforgivable

18. Contain your losses


19. Good traders manage the downside; They don't worry about the upside

20. Wall street research reports are biased

21. Knowing when to get out of a position is as important as when to get in

22. To excel, you have to put in hard work

23. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline !

[/ QUOTE ]

[stephenNUTS]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure. http://www.pineapplwatch.com . Just a little something to work on my writing, and comment on a few ideas I see coming up.

Here's something I have stuck on my wall, which is from Market Wizards:

[ QUOTE ]
1. All successful traders use methods that suit their personality; You are neither Waren Buffett nor George Soros nor Jesse Livermore; Don't assume you can trade like them.

2. What the market does is beyond your control; Your reaction to the market, however, is not beyond your control. Indeed, its the ONLY thing you can control.

3. To be a winner, you have to be willing to take a loss;


4. HOPE is not a word in the winning Trader's vocabulary;

5. When you are on a losing streak -- and you will eventually find yourself on one -- reduce your position size;

6. Don't underestimate the time it takes to succeed as a trader -- it takes 10 years to become very good at anything;

7. Trading is a vocation -- not a hobby

8. Have a business/trading plan;


9. Identify your greatest weakness, Be honest -- and DEAL with it

10. There are times when the best thing to do is nothing; Learn to recognize these times

11. Being a great trader is a process. It's a race with no finish line.

12. Other people's opinions are meaningless to you; Make your own trading decisions

13. Analyze your past trades. Study what happened to the stocks after you closed the position. Consider your P&L game tapes and go over them the way Vince Lombardi reviewed past Superbowls

14. Excessive leverage can knock you out of the game permanently

15. The Best traders continue to learn -- and adapt to changing conditions

16. Don't just stand there and let the truck roll over you

17. Being wrong is acceptable -- staying wrong is unforgivable

18. Contain your losses


19. Good traders manage the downside; They don't worry about the upside

20. Wall street research reports are biased

21. Knowing when to get out of a position is as important as when to get in

22. To excel, you have to put in hard work

23. Discipline, Discipline, Discipline !

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats an AWESOME must list for anyone who seriously invests/trades.It looks really familiar though....was this quoted from any other particular trader,article or book...(i mean other than market wizards)?

Thanks for the link also!

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[ArturiusX]

I think it was in an Options book I read too, I can't remember though, its been a while.

And for me, and probably other poker player thinking type investment types, this is the hardest:

[ QUOTE ]
10. There are times when the best thing to do is nothing; Learn to recognize these times

[/ QUOTE ]

Why does such a simple idea cause so much pain for me?

[maxtower]

OP,

Residential real estate is not the stock market. Because most people buy real estate for long periods of time, general price trends should continue month after month until they flatten or reverse. I think it would be unlikely that you see prices for an area up one month and down another followed by up again (talking about moves >1%).

I propose that you can take advantage of this and be somewhat successful timing the real estate bottom.

Take whatever your metro area is and find some price charts either from the Case-shiller graphs (more reliable) or housingwatch.com. Many of the metro areas are currently falling. When the rate of falling prices begins to slow and then flatten, I imagine at that point the market will be bottoming. Declining/Flat inventories will also be a good indicator. Also, you should go through a buy vs. rent comparison for the property you are interested in. If the cost of renting is greater or approximately equal to the cost of owning, then you'll have a third signal that the time to buy is right.

I am sure some on here will tell you that you can't time the market, but I bet if all three signals line up, you are going to get pretty close. Since your holding period in residential real estate should be pretty long any way (it takes 2-3 years of inflation just to pay the transaction costs), you won't have to worry about missing the bottom by a couple of percent.

[barbarous relic]

You might consider using the model that economists frequently use to determine whether housing is priced "correctly", i.e. they compare the rental price of similar housing to the amount of the monthly mortgage payment. As long as mortgage payments substantially exceed the rental values of similar housing, housing is taken as being "overpriced".

I've no idea how well the model works in practice, but I believe it's used by Robert Shiller of Yale, who is something of an expert on housing. You might google his website, which I understand also provides an index of housing [over]pricing considered quite accurate for the areas it covers.

[barbarous relic]

Here's a link to one of Shiller's recent papers:
"Historic Turning Points in Real Estate". The abstract
says the paper looks for markers of the end of real estate
booms or busts.

http://cowles.econ.yale.edu/P/cd/d16a/d1610.pdf

In the end of course, you pays your money and you takes
your chances.

[espoismoney]

First mistake is trying to "time" the market...you just have to use different investment strategies at different stages in the market. Been investing in Real Estate for 3 years, $3million worth of estate (about 1.2 liquid).

**you can also stop by my website www.NEREALESTATE.COM

[stephenNUTS]

Good posts ESP...Barb...and Max

SF [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[DesertCat]

Stephen,

Not trying to bust your balls, you made a great call and should feel good about it. I've just been waiting my whole life for 8%+ mortgage rates thinking I would get great RE bargains and ride their appreciation when rates declined again. So far plan has not worked! And you aren't much older than some posters here, uh, not naming names.

Best,
Randy

[DesertCat]

Arturius,

The interest tax deduction is a factor, but remember its been around a long while, and its probably declining in value due to AMT affecting more filers. But when you do a buy vs rent analysis for your self, you need to est. it.

One more Buffett reference. He's always said that most people benefit more from declining stock markets than rising ones. Its because most people are net savers, and a declining market gets them more value (earnings and assets) for each dollar invested.

I was thinking yesterday the same relationship applies to RE. I want a bigger house, so another five years of price declines benefits me. I will lose when I sell my house but I will gain more value getting a discount on a bigger more expensive house.