2/4 B&M - turn play with 99 and 4 card flush draw; counting outs?

[gobbledygeek]

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i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

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Why? My two 9 outs are pretty clean, I only have to make up 2 BB (if ignoring rake/etc.) which I'm sure to do if I hit. Are we folding due to chance of hitting 9 on turn but then seeing a club on river?

[gobbledygeek]

Note that I haven't been taking into account rake/jackpot/tip at my 2/4 table other than rounding down my turn count of BB. Could this be considered a bad leak?

Also, for those who advocate folding the flop getting, say, 16:1. Don't you think I could make up 3 BB against 4 opponents, closing the action and being in perfect position for a checkraise trapping the field?

[Hamlet]

It's pretty close. Every once in a while you are going to hit and still lose. You can be up against a flush draw that comes in on the river. The 9 could make someone with T8 a straight. The bettor could have just called your pre-flop raise with JJ. AJ could fill on the river.

These are rare events (well, the flush hitting isn't), but you're so close on the odds that it makes the flop call very marginal. It can't be a huge leak, but its probably a tiny loss. Honestly, I probably make the same peel.

As played, I think you have to fold the turn. Someone almost has to have a bigger club.

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Note that I haven't been taking into account rake/jackpot/tip at my 2/4 table other than rounding down my turn count of BB. Could this be considered a bad leak?

Also, for those who advocate folding the flop getting, say, 16:1. Don't you think I could make up 3 BB against 4 opponents, closing the action and being in perfect position for a checkraise trapping the field?

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[gobbledygeek]

FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

[Hamlet]

If a club comes on the river and it gets bet to you, are you going to fold?

You are going lose another river bet with this hand most of the time a club comes. Your pot odds need to include that extra bet you are likely to lose.

I think its going to be pretty rare that the 9c is the best hand after 3 other people put money in on the turn.

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FWIW, I did fold the turn. But I'll admit I had trouble estimating my number of outs under the pressure of live action; after thinking about it some more, I really only needed about 3 or 4 to continue (I think?), I'm kinda surprised no one thinks I might have enough here.

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[gobbledygeek]

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I think its going to be pretty rare that the 9c is the best hand after 3 other people put money in on the turn.

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That was my thinking too and why I folded the turn (that and having to pay off another BB to a bigger club if one fell).

[TheCount212]

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i fold the flop pretty much whatever the odds are.

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[gobbledygeek]

So people are folding this flop with 2 pretty clean outs if they're getting 22:1? 25:1? 30:1? I didn't realize someone betting this flop with a few callers meant that someone had flopped a set of A's or J's.

[BadBigBabar]

gobb, you know what i mean. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] we don't have anything close to 22:1 here. if i had kings or queens with the club i'd be more liable to peel since i'd have two backdoor draws both to the nuts. here, even if we runner runner a flush we are not likely to be good that often.

[jesse8888]

To sum this up...there are plenty of situations in low stakes limit holdem where you can gamboool with an edge. In this case, calling on the flop is gambling without an edge, or possibly even at a disadvantage. Save the frustration and move on.