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  #1  
Old 11-25-2007, 09:05 PM
TheRempel TheRempel is offline
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Default Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

Villain in this hand is awful and can be overcalling pretty wide and would not likely reraise a set on the flop. He got his stack like 3 hands previous by check calling three streets with a King high flush draw when I had top set and the bare ace. I am about 70% sure he has a flush. Do I bet? How much and why? (He has $360ish behind and the pot is $766)

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $669.70
TheRempel: $944.85
CO: $706.10
Button: $33
SB: $266.20
BB: $139

Pre-flop: (6 players) TheRempel is UTG+1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">UTG raises to $9</font>, TheRempel calls, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: ($31) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">TheRempel bets $22</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $97</font>, UTG calls, TheRempel calls.

Turn: ($322) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#cc0000">TheRempel bets $222</font>, SB folds, UTG calls.

River: ($766) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, TheRempel ?
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  #2  
Old 11-25-2007, 09:09 PM
blopp blopp is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

You said it yourself. So easy push.
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  #3  
Old 11-25-2007, 11:20 PM
cmyr cmyr is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

he only has a half pot or so, but it's interesting. Even a total calling station has to be worried here, and might not call a push with the Khigh flush, although it doesn't look like you have a set if he's conscious. Since he might expect the nut flush to want to get to showdown, and since you've shown down a naked ace, he might read a river push as being a bluff that doesn't want to give up.

If he had 3 pair or something on the flop he might check-call the river but it would be weird.

It'd be good to know whether he's a dedicated calling station or whether he can be convinced that (say) a ten high flush is no good here. The more flushes he'll lay down the more you want to hold off the trigger, obv.

I think it's important in big pots to know when to check behind with a hand that you expect to win, but which won't be getting called very often by worse hands if you bet it... this might be one of those spots.


Pushing is easy and fun though, so there's always that. Thin value is the best kind.

hmm. It's a big pot, and there's alot of money to play. I might be tempted to value bet like $140 or something, but that's weird.
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  #4  
Old 11-26-2007, 12:00 AM
sc000t sc000t is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

I don't think I'd push If I bet. I'd throw out a $200 - $250 bet.

But I'd check behind here.

I mean if hes that bad and your 70% sure he has a flush then throw out some value bets, but I'm not sure how you can be so positive he wouldn't c/r you with KKxx or even JJxx w/ hearts just thinking your flop bet is weak.

I think if he had a Kh flush draw that he would lead this turn and I think any lower flush can only call a river shove and expect to beat a bluff. Once the board pairs and you shoved, what would a Queen high flush or worse beat really? Even against this player, I don't think you'll get too many crying calls for 75bb on this river.

I guess its hard for me to put him on many hands that he takes this line w/, that you beat, AND pays you off enough to make up for the times he does have a full house.
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  #5  
Old 11-26-2007, 12:15 AM
RoundTower RoundTower is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

I think everything adds up to this being a push here. He is getting good enough odds to justify calling a bluffing station who he already pwned a few hands ago. And even this kind of guy often open pushes the river with any full house, so it really is likely he has a lower flush.

If you think he is the type to really get scared of big bets then maybe a smaller bet is in order, but you don't have much room to work with.
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  #6  
Old 11-26-2007, 12:15 AM
iggymcfly iggymcfly is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

I think if a bad villain does call the turn with a flush, he'll call the river as well at least half the time. So if he's going to have a flush 70% of the time as you say, then just get your stack in.

If you had a slightly larger stack, I'd be more inclined to check, but it's easy for a station to rationalize calling for &lt; 1/2 the pot and I think even bad players will usually lead out with a boat here.
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  #7  
Old 11-26-2007, 12:41 AM
cmyr cmyr is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

I'd like to add that I thought this 1-2 when I wrote my response, and I was thinking there was 150+bb left to play.
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  #8  
Old 11-26-2007, 02:09 AM
TheRempel TheRempel is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

Normally against a standard calltard I fire the river 100% but he was playing incredibly weird. I would not have been surprised to see him overcall with KK after being 'tricky' by checking second last to act after raising preflop. I really felt like he'd probably only call with the king or queen high flush which is probably about half of his flush range since he'll play a lot of really weak combo draws the same way. Just one of those cases where you're basically playing a guy who can barely read his own hand and it becomes more difficult than playing a seasoned player.

I should've just set him in but I checked behind after a few seconds because his weird super-call station style really had me boggled as to what his true range was. He had the second nut flush and I probably could've gotten the rest with a little bit 'time down and bet' play-acting. He didn't lead on the turn because he's not even considering what I have. He just knows he has the second nut flush and I tried to bluff him off the same hand minutes ago.

I'm not sure if there would be any point to betting less than what he has left against this player. It became very apparent later on that he was totally clueless. In about 200 hands he never raised a single street postflop except for the river, and then he went for a checkraise about 90% of the time. The only time he ever bet for value he bet like 1/4 pot. A lot of the time players like this are really just fish in the old school sense, they have no idea how to play poker whatsoever so I wouldn't expect him to understand that he's getting 2:1 on his call on the river, but I would expect him to think that somehow his river checkraise when I bet 175 on the river is the right play cause he has like the eighth nuts, so I feel that any bet less than a shove (unless to induce if I had a better read) is pretty useless.
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  #9  
Old 11-26-2007, 02:39 PM
wazz wazz is offline
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Default Re: Nut flush on paired river vs Call Station

This is a fully standard river shove IMO. I've seen villains better than yours call me with bare trips here.
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