Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[lucky_mf]

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Call me paranoid, but I do believe that all the posts here in defense of Absolute are coming from the same person. Certain accounts suggested I should use a standard deviation of 270 instead of 65 that I got from a winning player on pokerstars. They also suggested that I should use a t-distribution. Citation: "The t-distribution copes with uncertainty resulting from estimating the standard deviation from a sample, whereas if the population standard deviation were known, a normal distribution would be used." No one really seemed to know about statistics in this forum except drag who made some correct estimates and some other accounts that all were implying all the time by responding to each other that I should use a standard deviation of 270 instead of 65. Of course if you use a standard deviation that high the results get a lot more probable.

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You should not be using a SD of 65 - A SD of 65 may be appropriate for a player with somewhat typical stats, but a guy playing 90/80 or whatever is going to have a much larger SD. In absence of more information you should be using the sample standard deviation. As you are using a sample standard deviation, and not a population standard deviation, using the t-distribution is appropriate. In this case the distinction between using the t-dist and the normal distribution may not be very important as the t-distribution converges to the normal distribution pretty quickly (you don't need a huge sample before the differences become small).

Lucky

[KurtSF]

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Again, the aggression factor is damning. It's not just a donk that decided, "Hey, I'm gonna try to be more aggressive and see what happens." It's a player who raises or folds EVERY river when it's an option, only losing the pot when he bluffs and fails, or declines to bluff. And his actions taken vs. his opponent's actual holdings are essentially perfect. He induces bluffs from draws he has high-carded and calls. He makes loose calls of PF pushes that he ALWAYS ends up being slightly ahead of. From that, it's not "Oh, a donk called a shove with A high because he's a donk," it's "Oh, someone WOULD call a shove with A high when he knows his opponent has K high, and given ALL THIS OTHER EVIDENCE he probably DOES know."

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I see so many flawed an biased reasonings in this thread that I just have to make another post. Sorry Kurt.

There ate two theories here:

1. AP is rigged
2: An idiot donk decides to never call river and run hot for a few hundred hands.

The HHs seem to support #1 above. But what if #2 was true. What would the HHs look like? What would the HHs look like if an idiot donk decides to never call river and then run hot for a few hundred hands. What would they look like?

Think about it!

They would look like he could see your hole cards!

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So after nath makes a post pointing out that this or that can look possible when looking at one piece of evidence, but that once you see all the evidence nothing else is plausible anymore...

After that, you then:

* isolate out bits of evidence while ignoreing other pieces
* beg the question
* fail to even comprehend what you are talking about
* reduce the cheating to "rigged"ness

You are terrible at logic. You are terrible at argument. You are terrible at poker. You make so many idiotic statments. What you are saying in this thread is like walking into a NASA boardroom and saying "Everyone here is just thinking the same. Can we please consider the possibility that the word is flat!!!!! I mean, after all it looks flat!!!"

That's what you look like to us.

[PokerStorm]

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What you are saying in this thread is like walking into a NASA boardroom and saying "Everyone here is just thinking the same. Can we please consider the possibility that the word is flat!!!!! I mean, after all it looks flat!!!"

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Hmm, yeah looks flat to me too. Maybe it's time the scientists take another look at this. After all it may have been proved conclusively that it is round but god damn it's always looked flat to me whatever part of it I look at.

[pineapple888]

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Of the analogies offered so far I like the Battleship one the best.
It is simple to follow and strongly parallel in the manner used to gain an advantage and inevitable outcomes.
I was trying to get a blind man playing darts to work. Battleship is better.

I've been waiting to see if we can get the HHs to import so we have more actual "meat" for a new cliffsnotes.
Going to start some reordering and rewriting of some of the original notes in anticipation of more material.


Pineapple- somehow I had read it as a minor leaguer tearing up the majors. Probably was someone responding to it instead. Anyhow my bad.

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Dude u decided against new Cliff notes?

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No. Had almost no time to do anything last afternoon/night. Was just saying I would start reorganizing the notes from this thread in the manner that has been discussed - starting with an overall summary.
I started it and will continue/clean it up in the morning.
Gonna sleep- wake up and try to post something that gels in the morning my time (central US).

peace.

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k cool.

But, as somebody mentioned above, I think we may pretty much be done here. So super-brief cliff notes follow.

One of the following has happened:
- Scam artists have robbed players on Absolute of somewhere between $500K and $1M, or
- We have witnessed one of the most extraordinary events in the history of the universe, or
- The best poker players in the world have somehow misunderstood apparently overwhelming statistical evidence.

The immediate effects were:
- Absolute poker claims to have suspended the accounts of the alleged cheats, but has otherwise stonewalled completely, and has released no official statement
- Pretty much every poker site and blog picked up the story
- A bridge to the mainstream media in the form of the Freakonomics dude picked up the story and ran it in his New York Times blog. The public blamed psychics.
- A few 2+2ers removed their money from Absolute. Others continue to play there, including some who were cheated. Otherwise, their traffic has not fallen off at all.

The long-term effects will most likely be:
- Absolute will admit nothing and will refund no money.
- The story will die out.
- Return to status quo.

[FellKnight]

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but how about this

flight2q = Trogdor! = dragonystic = krumeluren = FellKnight


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rofl, i missed this one. brilliant!

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I'm insulted. At least earlier when I was accused of being DOUBLEDRAG that was kinda cool...

Fell

[iron81]

I'll vouch for Fellknight. I've knew him for years in a different forum and IIRC he published an article in 2+2 Magazine. He's no tard.

Also, lol at everyone complaining how this thread is "off track". That's what happens when we try to do srs biz in BBV.

[mntbikr15]

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I'll vouch for Fellknight. I've knew him for years in a different forum and IIRC he published an article in 2+2 Magazine. He's no tard.

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Youre one of THEM!!

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

I submit mntbkr15 is one of them too becuase he of the quick way he tried to shift blame to iron81. I also know he frequents AP and will be filing a claim with AP for all $$ ever lost to him. This conspiracy is bigger than we thought O.O

[e_phemeral]

blurb re absolute

I am computer illiterate, but I think this is a link to a blurb about the AP cheating scandal on some poker review site. This is the kind of thing that is necessary in order to get Absolute to respond. Only way they respond is if people keep this issue out front and center and it starts to affect traffic at AP.

[Trogdor!]

LOL WTF wolf you must have too much time on your hands and i am argueing against the others so wouldnt i just be contridicting your theory?

ahahah srsly through awesome theory

There also seems to be alot of confusion at what DD's sample SD is, i dont know where the 270 came from