$60 - Bubble Decision Thought Process

[jnfpoker]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t5370)
Button (t2370)
SB (t3300)
jnfpoker (t2460)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t600</font>, <font color="red">Button raises to t2200</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, <font color="red">jnfpoker raises to t2460 (All-in)</font>

My thought process during the hand:
I believe the CO was trying to take advantage of the fact that we were on the bubble and made a 3x BB raise. My intuition tells me that there is a great probability that the CO will fold to a re-raise by any player left. Once the button raises ALL IN and the SB folds my thoughts become contradictory. If I call I am probably a coinflip against the Button's range. Then, I said to myself, if I call and the Button does have me beat, the CO raiser could call behind taking us both out giving me 3rd place.

As you can tell, my thought process during the hand is very cloudy, even amateurish. I rely on my experience and intuition in many situations and am unsure how to attack this mathematically. How can you accurately put an opponent on a range of holdings?

[jnfpoker]

I forgot another important aspect of this hand that I thought about. If the buttons chances of taking down the pot with the re-raise after I fold are high, he will have added 800 chips to his stack, putting him at 3170 and the SB at 3200. I will be at 2260 after my fold with the big stack to my left.

These chip counts were the deciding factor in my call.

[cougar62]

That's a tough hand...I took way longer than you have in a tourney to think about it, but here it is...The blinds are still only t200, so if your right, and CO folds (assuming we fold too), we're still in the game and still not panicking. If we shove, the CO is getting better than 3-1, so he's going to have a tough time folding if he has anything decent. This gives us possible implied odds of 2-1 on our shove vs. 2 opponents, not bad with AK, hopefully we're dominating at least 1 of the villians. So, I'm good with the shove, we're thinking win while also giving ourselves a chance at guaranteeing a cash.

[Kevin8423]

Because the Button raised the big stack I would think that his range is going to be something like AQ+ (maybe AJ) and 88+. I don't think you can really count on CO calling, that probably won't happen often, so you are looking at a situation where you are probably flipping or dominated far more than the times he has AJ/AQ. I think you have enough chips here to fold. If you were a little shorter or had a read that the button is reraising here pretty wide I would shove, though the shove probably isn't terrible either.

Edit: Do the added chips from CO make up for the fact that we're likely behind Buttons range?

[JROK777]

If you knew the CO was calling it would be a better shove. The only was you lose if if the sb beats both of your hands. I think the CO will probably fold and so should you.

[Shillx]

[ QUOTE ]
If you knew the CO was calling it would be a better shove. The only was you lose if if the sb beats both of your hands. I think the CO will probably fold and so should you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah you want him to call if you call (assuming he has to either fold 100% of the time or call 100% of the time) but it only holds if he will fold should you fold. Seems pretty backwards to me. You need almost 54% equity if he never calls or overcalls and he figures to call more then overcall so you actually need quite a bit more. Looks like a trivial fold to me unless the button is a total loon.

[malnek]

havent done maths on this but i think i proly fold

[jnfpoker]

Kevin correctly guessed Buttons' range. CO folded and the Button flipped over 77.

What would be your minimum holding to shove it in here? If you had TT, JJ, QQ? It seems AK is marginal at best here.

[GotQuads]

[ QUOTE ]

Edit: Do the added chips from CO make up for the fact that we're likely behind Buttons range?

[/ QUOTE ]

We're a coinflip against his range, assuming it's 88+,AQ+ so yes the extra chips would provide enough overlay. Still, folding here seems like a good idea, since we might find better spots and we can't be sure his range really is 88+,AQ+ here.

[ryanghall]

I'd call for sure.

Ryan