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#1
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
Why are we calling and c/rai against nits who are never just randomly squeezing anything other than a super tight range
spewy |
#2
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
19/7 isn't just a nit who doesn't randomly squeeze anything. He might not play well in LP and doesn't steal much, leading to a low PFR.
a player like sabr who plays 20/17 is very easily squeezed by a 19/7 player(he is not 12/7 and that is a huge difference). If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7 |
#3
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7 [/ QUOTE ] I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much. But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station. |
#4
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7 [/ QUOTE ] I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much. But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station. [/ QUOTE ] seriously so many hands are over with before the turn 500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns |
#5
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7 [/ QUOTE ] I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much. But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station. [/ QUOTE ] seriously so many hands are over with before the turn 500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns [/ QUOTE ] Sorry don't get where you guys got most of the things you were talking about. I look at aggression factor postflop because it gives you another idea of how aggressive this guy is. If he is 19/7/1, it means he is unaggressive, which means he could be an unimaginative 19/7, where-as a 19/7/4 is one who can get fiesty. As for the w$sd, it means on a low flop you can c-r him and take down the pot because he is scared of sets a lot and doesn't see showdown much |
#6
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] If he gave us some 3betting percentages, or blind steals, or looked at aggression factor postflop, or went to showdown percentage, I could give you a better idea of what to do, but since he doesnt I am going to assume a lot of times he could be getting played back at by even a 19/7 [/ QUOTE ] I don't like to post postflop stats over a small simple since the things he does on the turn/river are over such a small sample that it doesn't mean much. But villain is definitely capable of aggressive plays like check-raising a straight draw on the flop, he's not a station. [/ QUOTE ] seriously so many hands are over with before the turn 500hand sample he played maybe 75-90flops and maybe 20-30turns [/ QUOTE ] Sorry don't get where you guys got most of the things you were talking about. I look at aggression factor postflop because it gives you another idea of how aggressive this guy is. If he is 19/7/1, it means he is unaggressive, which means he could be an unimaginative 19/7, where-as a 19/7/4 is one who can get fiesty. As for the w$sd, it means on a low flop you can c-r him and take down the pot because he is scared of sets a lot and doesn't see showdown much [/ QUOTE ] I was just estimating based on how the FR tables play(though its from my style of play perspective, not so much a 19/7 one) he's probably seeing a higher % of flops and turns than more aggro players like myself or Sabr do for a couple reasons we raise/reraise preflop more often which leads to more pots taken down preflop on the flop we bet pretty often, and a ton of hands end right there so take a 500hand sample, he VPIP'd 95times, raised 35 a fair number of those aren't going to make it to the flop, also likely sees a modest amount of free flops from the BB(probably around 60-70 hands in the BB in the stretch) I think the estimate of 75-90 is fairly reasonable, and given how much variance there is on flop texture is a relatively meaningless sample of those a ton are ending right there on the flop, I should dig in PT by cbets work very often at FR so even if 45turns played, its still a tricky sample to analyze for his postflop tendencies because the variance is wild(if he's hitting 2x as many draws as expected its likely much higher than if he's missing 2x as many as expected) now you get to the river, you might be at 10-15 hands that get there, sometimes the money is already in, so you don't get any info etc its raw estimates, the turn # may have been a little low, and river is probably in the 8-25 range(often have runs of <15WSD, occasionally above 25WSD) the main point is at 500hands VPIP and PFR still flucuate a fair bit, and as you shrink the sample even more(aka to times there is a flop, turn river etc) the original sample needs to be much larger to get a 500hand sample of those situations 100hand sample is wildly inaccurate for VPIP, its not going to suddengly be super accurate for flop play what I think is much better is to look at specific hands and try and see how he plays certain hand strengths(flushdraws, weak TP, strong TP, monsters and try to develop an idea of his playing style that way) |
#7
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
I would call and check all flops. Go from there.
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#8
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
A 19/7 isn't a super nit. This is an LP raise by LAGR42 and a cold call. He can very easily three-bet Jacks for protection / value or "bluff" AQ here. Plus, OP has a history with Villain of making very aggro plays and showed down 33 after raising UTG.
IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time. |
#9
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding. But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here. The only question is whether to call or to just shove now. |
#10
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Re: 600 NL, preflop spot with QQ
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] IMO, if SABR starts laying down Queens in these spots, he's gonna get OWNED big time. [/ QUOTE ] This is what I was thinking too. If I opened from UTG and he 3-bet from MP, I'm probably folding. But I raised from LP, CO called, and he squeezed from the button. With my wide opening range there is no way I can fold here. The only question is whether to call or to just shove now. [/ QUOTE ] I did some math if his calling range is QQ+ AK if you shove, he needs to have 15combos of hands he folds to a shove for it to be breakeven 15combos roughly works out to 1/3rd of the time he's squeezing he's folding if his calling range is JJ+ AK, pushing is breakeven-ish if he's only squeezing with that range and never air, and +EV if there is any air in there I think with your image you'll be +EV shoving |
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