Live 20/40 Two river check-raise attempts…

[Garland]

In the past, I tend to bet my made hands OOP in fear of a check-through. It’s not horrible, as I’m almost always getting paid off. But I might not be getting the most value. Nowadays, I’m trying to find some spots for river sexy. I’m not sure about these, but here goes. These hands are from the same session as the “Gar vs. Pro” series (without the Pro):

Hand #1

Location: Bay 101 in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $20/$40
Players: Aggressive table, but not tricky. Only *** of 5.

Principal players:

Button – Older tightish aggressive Asian gentleman. One tricky play of note is he was in BB and check-raised late position bet into a field of 3 others with an underpair to the board and caught lucky on the river. He seems to be the value bet type.

CO – Me.

HJ – Young aggressive white kid who just got out of a 40/80 game. A bit too loose and limps too much, and is definitely aggressive. At times declares his hand before it’s over and he often shows it’s the truth. Admitted to being a rebel and doing weed on occasion. Personally knows Noah Lowry of the San Francisco Giants as a note of trivia. (More accurately, his ex-girlfriend dated Noah). A bit of a jock type, played basketball on a scholarship at a local private college, but didn’t stick because he didn’t get along with his coach. I only put all this here really for Hand #2.

Preflop action: (1.5 small bets, 9 players) Folds to HJ who limps, I raise with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Button cold calls, blinds fold, HJ calls.

Flop action: (7.5 small bets, 3 players) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. HJ checks, I bet, button raises, HJ folds, I just call (If HJ called, I would have 3-bet for value).

Turn action: (5.75 big bets, 2 players) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I check, button bets, I call.

River action (7.75 big bets, 2 players) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] I check?

Hand #2

Location: Bay 101 in San Jose, CA
Stakes: $20/$40
Players: Aggressive table, but not tricky. Only *** of 5.

SB – Me

Button – Same as HJ player in Hand #1

Preflop action: (1.5 small bets, 9 players) Folds to button who open-limps. I find A5o in SB and raise to get rid of BB. BB calls anyways, Button calls.

Flop action: (6 small bets, 3 players) K43 r. I bet, BB folds, Button calls.

Turn action: (4 big bets, 2 players) A completing rainbow: I bet, Button exclaims “Oh, I like it now!” and slams down a raise. I judge I’m behind, but call for odds with intent to fold river UI.

River action (8 big bets, 2 players) 2. I check?

All comments appreciated, results to come.

Garland

[Fianchetto]

Hand 1: I like. I may have jammed the flop anyway though.

Hand 2: Yes, this prob works with the player you described. However, some are reluctant to value bet with 4 to a straight on board even though they'd have no reason to put you on a 5, a river lead is better against them.

[cgrohman]

1.) I like hand #1. He doesn't seem to be the type that would slow down when the flush hits-- the question is, will he pay off?

2.) Most definitely sexy time. Give him a little wiggle for good measure as well.

[signal]

I love the river sexy on hand #2 -- seems like you will extract value a large percentage of the time with yr well disguised 2nd nut hand.

On hand #1, I am a bit skeptical; a board-pairing draw completer would mostly, IMO, cause a check behind unless he boated and therefore crushes you (would he preflop cold-call with PPs 66-99?).
__________________________________________________ __________
Edit: So, I am sitting here having some coffee and thought I'd calculate EV's in these cases. I chose some example numbers (based on my estimates/description of hand) and calculated Evs to show how the river situation could be case dependent.

EV(c/r) = [ Pr{heBets} * Pr{heCallsRaise} * 2BB
+ Pr{heBets} * (1 - Pr{heCallsRaise}) * 1BB ]
* Pr{yourHandisBest}
- Pr{heHasBest} * Pr{heBets}
* Pr{heRaises/YouFold} * 2BB

EV(bet) = Pr{heCalls} * 1BB * Pr{yourHandisBest}
- Pr{heCalls/Raises} * Pr{heHasBest} * 1BB

If we assume that the probability that he is best is negligible (i.e. Pr{heHasBest} << 0), then:

EV(c/r) = Pr{heBets} * Pr{heCallsRaise} * 2BB
+ Pr{heBets} * (1 - Pr{heCallsRaise}) * 1BB

EV(bet) = Pr{heCalls} * 1BB

Speculation based on hand descriptions:

Hand #1:
Pr{heBets} = 0.40
Pr{heCallsRaise} = 0.40
Pr{heCallsifYouBet} = 0.70

EV(c/r) = 0.56 BB
EV(bet) = 0.70 BB

Hand #2:
Pr{heBets} = 0.80
Pr{heCallsRaise} = 0.60
Pr{heCallsifYouBet} = 0.90

EV(c/r) = 1.28 BB
EV(bet) = 0.9 BB

OP probably has a more accurate guess as to the probabilities, but I think this at least illustrates a situational dependence.

[n.s.]

Hand 2 I like a lot. If he's half-aware he shouldn't put you on a 5, and he's gotta pay off with his likely 2 pair.

Hand 1 I don't like so much. As others pointed out, the river not only brought a flush card, but also paired the board. If it doesn't encourage villain to check behind, it'll certainly make it harder for him to call the raise (he seems like the kind that might hand-read badly enough to think that you could have a 2). Aside from that, there's also a decent chance that villain just made a boat, and we'll get taken to value town. Especially if we can't fold to the 3-bet, I'd rather get in 1 or 2 bets, instead of 0 or 3.

[J.A.Sucker]

First hand is close, but I prefer betting out. I also prefer jamming on the flop here - your A overcard gives you plenty of value and here's a good spot to get people to play with you in hands where they are not in very good shape.

Hand 2 is an easy checkraise agaisnt most 20/40 players at the Bay, which it sounds like since you're planning on folding unimproved. However, with the rake structure in that game (5 bucks when they flop it), you should dump the hand preflop. It's not close.

[cgrohman]

The problem with jamming the flop in hand 1 is that it will be heads up with hero out of position. It depends on villian's likely holdings, i.e. is a Q an out as well.

[Garland]

One worked, one failed.

Hand #1

Some notes: I didn't feel a 3-bet was correct because (a) I was out of position and cannot get a free card (b) I had a hand that didn't rank to be ahead equity-wise ~40% vs. his supposed K. (c) Getting 4-bet is not good news.

I wanted to check-raise my well disguised flush if I hit on the turn (or on the river for that matter). For all he knows I got stubborn with QQ or something. Additionally, he would probably pay me off light because he might be thinking ''He's just trying to make a move with me when a flush card comes...I'll catch his bluff''.

Hand #2

I would love to chop this hand, but button limped...end of chopping ideas. I'm almost certain to be ahead of button, and I think folding would be giving up too much value. However, you're right--$5 drop is not trivial.

n.s. had some sentiment about being afraid of a house. In my opinion being afraid of a house at this juncture is weak-minded. But yes, if I check-raised and got 3-bet, I can make the fold pretty easily.

Garland

[Fianchetto]

Another note on 3-betting the flop in hand 1, you really aren't giving up much if anything by raising back there.

Like Sucker mentioned, if you need at least AK to reraise there then good players will notice, and when you have a set or aces or whatever you will win the minimum from them instead of getting the action you'd like with a big hand.

By keeping the betting lead you'll sometimes get to 3-bet the big streets when you hit too.

I suspect hand 1 was the one that didn't work, and he checked behind with a medium pair, if there is a chance he would've folded it if you kept the heat on then pushing your draw becomes the better line.

[n.s.]

[ QUOTE ]
n.s. had some sentiment about being afraid of a house. In my opinion being afraid of a house at this juncture is weak-minded. But yes, if I check-raised and got 3-bet, I can make the fold pretty easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

For some reason my advice (I actually haven't been playing much) has gotten extremely weak-tight lately, I dunno what's wrong with me.

That said, I didn't really mean to imply that I was actually afraid of a boat here, just that there was some small chance of it and it was a factor that weighs against check-raising. However if you can fold to the 3-bet, then it doesn't make any difference because 2 bets are going in no matter what you do.

I'll go back to nitting quietly.