High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

[JokersAttack]

I apologize, I took your post to mean that Jamie's range may have included other holdings which would make Doyle's total equity warrant a call.

Apologies.

[Micro Donk]

yea i could see how it could be taken that way, but its not a problem

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Whoever thinks Doyle played that hand wrong is a donkey at best.

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems like a common belief in this thread. Isn't folding when the other guy is drawing stone dead technically "wrong?"

[/ QUOTE ]


fwiw you are both idiots, its a tough spot and doyle didnt make the best play IMO but the spot is so thin that its hard for him to make a horrible play regardless of what he does. and im about the last person anyone would consider a fanboy

[Arnold_O]

just saw it, wild man, wild. absolutely crazy some of that action. gold could drop a million easily, i guess he doesn't care.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
And yes, he did read jamie correct for having a big hand, but to rule out the possibility that Jamie would play a set or two-pair, or whatever-strength hand he happens to have in this way, is wrong. I might be missing something, but why should their stack-sizes totally change the value of the situation.

[/ QUOTE ]

First look at two absurd cases where they have the same amount of money. The pot is some constant $40 000.

If they have $10 000 its an easy call for Doyle because Gold will move in with many hands, plus the pot means he only has to be right 1 time in 4 to make the call correct.

If they have $1 000 000 000 then Doyle probably wants to fold because the size of the pot is irrelevant. He basically needs to be better then Gold half the time.

So, the larger the stack sizes the more often you have to be right in making the call.

People keep saying how Gold bluffs a lot, blah blah, but don't forget he's not a complete retard. He knows how to play poker. If his money gets all in in this hand, there's a good chance he's got the best hand. In all honesty if Doyle had moved all in over the top of him I don't think Gold would have called. He definitely wouldn't call with smaller flushes(Edit: ie. 7 high flush or lower). This is precisely why Doyle couldn't really move all in, because he's only getting called by hands that crush him.

On the river Gold is actually liable to play it pretty well with a decent mix of bluffs and value bets with a good hand. If Doyle calls the turn he's put himself in a tough spot on the river when Gold bets it. If Gold checks the river Doyle can't really extract value because if he bets the river Gold is probably only calling with hands that beat Doyle and folding the rest. In fact given Doyle's hand (10 8) there's really only one flush (9 high) that he's ahead of and that might pay him off.

[/ QUOTE ]

everything about this post is insane.

[TimTimSalabim]

I don't fault Doyle's fold at all. When you see a guy who's afraid to value bet unless he has the nuts, raises you in that situation, you figure he's either got a monster or he's bluffing. And Doyle knew he wasn't bluffing. It was actually a great read on Doyle's part, if we can get away from the results-oriented thinking.

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault Doyle's fold at all. When you see a guy who's afraid to value bet unless he has the nuts, raises you in that situation, you figure he's either got a monster or he's bluffing. And Doyle knew he wasn't bluffing. It was actually a great read on Doyle's part, if we can get away from the results-oriented thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem is that everyone seems to be assuming that gold will view the 9 hi flush as that much better than than an 8 or 7 hi (or 3 high flush really). Gold is def. capable of being stupid enough to not understand the RIO that come w/ huge stacks, and thats why Doyle should probably have called, but as i said earlier its a really tough spot and anyone saying that everyone arguing one specific side is an idiot is being absurd.

[KSOT]

Doyle is the new Jman.

Gabe and AJ were REALLY on tonight. Possibly more than ever before.

[Perestroika]

Hollywade has probably never even reached 400bb before in his life, or if he has he instantly left and told all his friends how much he pwns poker.

[JokersAttack]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't fault Doyle's fold at all. When you see a guy who's afraid to value bet unless he has the nuts, raises you in that situation, you figure he's either got a monster or he's bluffing. And Doyle knew he wasn't bluffing. It was actually a great read on Doyle's part, if we can get away from the results-oriented thinking.

[/ QUOTE ]

the problem is that everyone seems to be assuming that gold will view the 9 hi flush as that much better than than an 8 or 7 hi (or 3 high flush really). Gold is def. capable of being stupid enough to not understand the RIO that come w/ huge stacks, and thats why Doyle should probably have called, but as i said earlier its a really tough spot and anyone saying that everyone arguing one specific side is an idiot is being absurd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you're right, there is no magical boundary that turns the 9 high flush into balls out monster compared to the 8, 7, or 6 high flush.

However, do you really think Jamie is jamming mini flushes there? I don't know, but I'd guess he isn't. It's hard to estimate how low Jamie's flush would have had to get before he merely flatted Doyle's bet. I don't know if its even possible to say, and I'm sure there is a degree of randomness involved.

But, even if Jamie does make it 100k with a mini flush there, do you think he exudes the same confidence he did with the nine high one? That's also a factor we have to consider. Not just the way Jamie's hand strength may have affected his betting, but also how it affected his demeanour, which is clearly readable and exploitable by the top players at the table.