Looking at the dynamics of ICM

[PokerAmateur4]

Trying to break down all the EV factors that ICM calcs examine and weight, and also what it cannot calculate, and how much those things are important.

I'm sure there are some good threads on this, if you have any please link. This is an interesting hand which may have some elements which require different examination.

CO(Hero): 533, QTs Blind: 25
BTN: 3713 Call: 40%+ Blind:25
SB: 5301 Call: 85% Blind: 225
BB: 3953 Call: 100% Blind: 425

Before giving out the answer, or before plugging it in, please give your mental guess.

What things are you considering here?

For me it's:

Push:
Suppose BB calls you only, ~2.5:5, ~2.5:1 pot odds. Pretty large differance in CEV from getting called by SB next hand when your in BB(~1:1). On balance: This probably isn't a ton of $ differance.

Added to this however is your fairly strong hand realative to an average hand which you must certainly be all in for next time(unless maybe there's 2 players all in maybe? What do you think about this seperate question?)

Fold:
Even if you double up, no guarantee of money, and you're far from being comfortable, will probably have to be put at great risk of being knocked out shortly again, making playing for 3rd more appealing.

Maybe they'll bump each other out this hand. What are the odds of that? What percentage of time do two players go all in, and of that percentage how often does someone get knocked out? I imagine small, like maybe ~%5 or less, as there is implicit collusion and what not. On balance: This is HUGE when this happens, as you just maybe %30+ of prize equity.

All things considered I would push but it seems close.

Correct range in white, please put some thought and a guess in before looking:
<font color="white"> Push %50, 22+, A2+, K2+, Q6+, Q2s+, J8+, J5s+, T8+, T6s+
Edge diff. in this case: %1.55</font>

Which factors do you consider that I've missed or which have I messed up some how? What does ICM include?