Very strange 4-bet spot w/ 99 vs D_liciousUTB

[Surf]

[ QUOTE ]
Someone double check the math for me.
Villain folds:+358


Assuming you have 2 outs to win once he calls

1-[(47-2)/47 x (46-2)/46]=8.4% to win if he calls

Villain calls:EV=[(8.4%)x(814)]+[(91.6%)x(-814)]

[/ QUOTE ]

This part is off - hero wins 8.4% of 814 when called, but when he calls and loses it is (91.6%)x(-228) which is the cost of hero's bluff. This changes the ultimate answer pretty drastically:

EV= 68.37+ -208.85
EV= -140.478

Fold equity to make it neutral EV where fold equity =x
0=x(358)+(-140.478)(1-x)

0=358x-140.478+140.478x
0=498.478x - 140.478
140.478 = 498.478x
x = 28.18%

I would venture that there is a >28% chance that villain has called a hand that is not AA/KK that will fold, either a poorly played QQ/JJ or some shenanigans that shouldn't have seen a flop, so I would shove. It doesn't necessarily matter if the hand that folds is AQ-esque, since we cannot call a bet so we are just taking the right of first bluff.

Surf