Soccer - Correct Score > Winner?

[MrBlueNose]

Generally, most people either stick to the overall result of the game, or use the asian handicap. However there is a lot more potential bets out there.

One of them, is betting the "correct score". Now at this time I haven't did any real math on this, although I probably will when I get home from cottage, but right now I wanted to write up a post about it, see what others think - maybe I am an idiot missing out on something [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

So let's take the Derby vs Portsmouth game first of all, which a few 2p2ers have tipped Portsmouth. Let's take Portsmouth to win. I'll use Betfair for all odds for ease of use. Odds on Portsmouth to win are 2.44, so if we bet $1,000 we would profit $1440.00 every time Portsmouth win.

Now we go to the Correct Score. Again, we are betting on Portsmouth to win. Lets look at some of the potential scores, with odds in brackets:

1-0 (8)
2-0 (14)
3-0 (34)
2-1 (10.5)
3-1 (27)
3-2 (40)
Any Unquoted (17)

So that's 7 bets. You don't HAVE to do the latter one, but I think for now we'll include it. This is where some calculations and actual work would have to be done to determine whether this has long-term +EV.

So 7 bets. 1000/7 = $142.86 approx. So if we put $142.86 on every bet, we'd make:

1-0 $1000.02
2-0 $1857.18
3-0 $4714.38
2-1 $1357.17
3-1 $3714.36
3-2 $5571.54
Unquoted $2285.76

Now I haven't done the math behind it yet, but by risking the exact same amount as an out and out win, for this particular game, I'd see a profit value of about $1700-$1800.

So am I missing anything here? Of course you'd have to pick and choose your games carefully. But even Man Utd vs Reading where odds are like 1.25 for Man Utd, the lowest is Any Unquoted at 5, meaning as long as Man Utd win, we'd still be making money.

Thoughts? Am I an idiot missing something glaringly obvious? Should I just put it all on black instead [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[New001]

I'm a little too busy right now to read through this and will later tonight, but I've played around with these bets during last season. In two or three tries, I never saw a bet that my system regarded as +EV in any way. I'm curious to see what you've got here.

[MrBlueNose]

One thing I just noticed - the thing about Man Utd/Reading would be an incorrect bet. You would have to bet at odds of x, where x is the number of bets you have in play for it to be even(so assuming you always cover all 7 potential scores, you'd have to bet at least 7.0 to break even).

It'd be a case of seeing how often all the listed victories, then unlisted victories, come up compared to each other. I'll probably do that when I get time, but if anyone knows a site that lists say - the amount of times a team wins 1-0 as compared to 2-0 etc that would be a good help [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[rush66]

Interested to see what you guys come up with. The only thing I am wondering is if books find that sharps are doing this on a certain side...how long will it last?

[MrBlueNose]

Actually the best thing to do(which I will do) is pick a couple of leagues, and make note of the odds of correct scores, as well as match odds, then tally it all up afterwards and use that data to work out some regulations, as well as see if it would be a better method. I'll start that right away.

[gtrunner57]

If outcomes are heavily weighted towards 1-0 and 2-1, which seems very likely since these would be the most common margins of victory, then it may not be more profitable.

I don't know much about soccer statistics but I would definitely do some analysis on margins of victory before deciding that this is a better bet.

[TheOffice]

Well, 1-0 and 2-1 are the most common scores in a win/loss situation. The margin of victory can't really be applied to this problem as 3-2 and all unquoted (5-4) are also being accounted for whereas 1-0 isn't. To me it seems just as if you're

1. betting on team X to win

AND

2. betting on team X to win
a) not 1-0 ... money back
b) not 2-1 ... worse odds than straight ML

I think this will definitely be a game of negative expectation in soccer.

PS: For betfair you'd also include at least 2%, but more realistically between 4% and 5% commission, thus reducing your odds and effectively profitability on your system ... sucks, I know.

[jelly]

The listed odds converted to percentages add up to 41% (I took as much as one half of "unquoted" pct, altough Ports wins are less than one half of the frequency, as there are draws as well).
2.44 decimal odds convert to 41%
Result: correct score is the same as straight bet at best.

[TheOffice]

Actually correct score is 44,2% to my calculations and we're basically throwing 1-0 (12,5%) out of the window as a bet that only returns stakes as it will always be the most likely result in games which are somewhat evenly matched like Derby-Portsmouth.

Then subtract 4-5% from your potential winnings for commission and I don't see this working ever. But maybe it's just me and a misunderstood concept.

[MrBlueNose]

Yeah the more I think about it, the more I am seeing that in the long run, correct score would be -EV compared to just the straight bet. There's probably some certain circumstances where correct score would be better, but for the mass majority, straight bet would bring in more profit.