am i just playing terribly lately?

[Bill King]

i think you're well behind on the turn there isnt much value in his play if you follow the action w/ out a hand.. he knows you're capable of shoving a lot of hands here

[catcher193]

cts gave him some credit in the OP, I'm sure he can valuebet hearts 88+

[KRANTZ]

i fold it's def possible he puts you on some flush too

[mperich]

Anyone like donking the river allin? 15k? 10k? Not sure if I do but something to think about.

-Mike

[nycballer]

it really comes down whether u think he can have air on the turn, which even if he could seems like it would be like 15% of the time(78, 47, 97, 89 off i guess if he is crazy as u say he folds none of the insides on flop) and if he knows u like to make big calls he could def shove the upper half heart range.

right after writing this im almost talking myself into this possibly being a call. if u think the inside straight draws are in his range and he would never shove any of those if he had 1 heart in there, you can call this. but i still think its a fold, just sooo many hands he can have

[KRANTZ]

[ QUOTE ]
cts gave him some credit in the OP, I'm sure he can valuebet hearts 88+

[/ QUOTE ]

yah durrr is def capable of this, for sure

[Clayton]

so wait, hes ace18?

[Ship Ship McGipp]

I think this hand deserves more discussion. My basic thoughts are that if villian is any good, he's bluffing here quite a bit. In order to bluff here quite a bit, he has to shove here fairly thin on the end. I do understand why people think that Qh and sometimes Jh are the worst hands this guy can bet/shove for value (let's just assume they're the same, not taking into account too much meta of 'he'll read just less than a shove strong, or just less than a shove weak, etc' because without history or leveling knowledge I don't think we can really know too much info about that, and a shove is barely over a psb), since villian would now be looking at cts check-calling the Jh or 8h or whatever on the end.

I just feel like if villian shoves X amount of times on the end, he won't have a made hand enough for X to be for value enough. In order to compensate for that, shouldn't he add hands that are for value the MAJORITY of the time, even if they sometimes get called by a better made hand?

Assuming he's thinking (I dunno, gonna go out on a limb since it's 200-400), doesn't he know that cts is capable of hero calls, that he should be read as possibly floating A-high flops, that cts would expect him to check most bare one-decent-sized heart floats on the turn, that cts expects him to raise most strong made hands on the flop on a draw heavy board, that some % of the time he will raise heart draws on the flop, that the times he doesn't raise heart draws on the flop they'll often be small and won't be able to value bet the river- so much so that his line looks contradictory to cts, and therefore bluffy.

Because of this, why can't he shove the eight of hearts? Surely some % of time cts has AoXh where the X is some random small card that is a flush; therefore I'd say that there's a spectrum, and certainly the 2h isn't a shove if we're villian but why isn't the 9h?

Don't we have to value bet (even if it's only USUALLY for value, or we sometimes get snapped a better hand- or a boat or something for that matter) wider if we're going to bluff frequently, and if our line looks that weak?

Please, I want to be yelled at and corrected, or at least reprimanded, for my incorrect thoughts in this post.

[SecretOfMana]

At first glance the shove on the river seems like he's repping a house... but since its 200/400 I'm guessing this could be a bluff a good amount of the time. However, lets look at the hands that beats us that COULD play the same way.

55, 66, 56s, AT, Ak, Axh, 7o8h, etc etc..

I just dont see how calling here vs that range is profitable.

[cts]

calling vs the range of hands that beats us isn't profitable? ya dont say?

try and fit some of those hands into the action. you think he chooses not to reraise AK preflop? or bets AT on the turn and then shoves the river? ???