200NL Live - Can I fold?

Bavid Denyamine · #1 12-03-2006, 10:29 PM

Villain is borderline TAG but opens a lot of pots in position. He had stacked a guy earlier with a set of sixes vs. Aces. Stack sizes are guessed.

Villain ($450)
UTG+1 ($200)
CO ($100)
Hero ($250)
SB ($200)
BB ($300)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Villain raises to $7, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises to $25 (squeeze play holla) , SB folds, BB folds, Villain calls, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: ($60) 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
Villain checks, Hero bets $50, Villain insta-shoves, Hero...?

Is there any way I can fold now or do I have to stack off to jacks full? What made me second guess insta-calling is his play pre-flop. I thought he would 4-bet me with AA/KK for sure, but he could smooth call me hoping to trap more dead money in the pot, but even that seems unlikely. JJ seemed to make sense the way he played it. I don't think he makes this play with a flush draw either. It's weird, because I really hit my hand in the face and I want to fold. What do you do?

AggJedi · #2 12-03-2006, 10:37 PM

JJ doesn't make too much sense here to me. He raised pretty small UTG, since he'll be OOP and has a hand as vulnerable as jacks, I would expect him to raise more like 5x the BB to cut down on the opponents he'll be facing. JJ is a good hand, but if he faces it against 3 other players OOP, he's really playing it just for set value which really limits it's value.

This hand is really bizzarre, he hasn't played it like he has JJ-AA with his preflop action. What do you think your image to him is, have you been making several cont. bets in position when checked to? If so he could simply have something like 88-TT and just "know" you'll fold anyways.

Weirdly enough, it looks like he has a 7, pushing hoping that you'll stack off with your overpair (that he may very well put you on). What his kicker could be, I don't know, but odds are it has you beat.

If you had A7 here, I would think it would be an instant call. But with his huge CR overbet(raise) I think this is a fold.

Keyser. · #3 12-03-2006, 10:49 PM

Roomie,
Instacall. Stack his AA-QQ/AKdd etc. etc. Also I don't think this is a great spot for a PF squeeze since most solid TAGs have pretty narrow ranges for opening UTG.

--Other roomie [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

ZingyDNA · #4 12-03-2006, 10:51 PM

You need a solid read to fold here. Are you pretty sure he never does that with over pair/TP? How often does he bluff after the flop? I'd staff off to the cooler...

Bavid Denyamine · #5 12-03-2006, 10:59 PM

I don't think he'd c/rai to me with just AJ. I'd been playing pretty tight so I'd think he'd respect the 3-bet (even if it's deceptive here). I'd only seen about two orbits of hands and he'd only shown the set of sixes. I'm not sure he never does that with an over pair, but does it seem likely?

Roomie, he had raised the last two pots so I thought I'd do some third-level thinking and squeeze here. Agreed though, probably not the best move.

shmoosh · #6 12-03-2006, 11:04 PM

Call quickly. This line reeks of an overpair. From his perspective it's going to seem very unlikely that you hold a 7.

FishRoller · #7 12-03-2006, 11:08 PM

Instacall... Looks like AA or KK slowplaying, AK of spades maybe- AJ even? 1 out of 1 million times this is JJ or A7s. Nice luckboxing.

ART115 · #8 12-03-2006, 11:12 PM

easy call, here dont think he can play JJ in this way, kk aa alot here, maybe a big draw.

AmazingErvin · #9 12-03-2006, 11:14 PM

Easy call.

AE6 · #10 12-04-2006, 12:57 AM

Cizall, he is def not putting you on a 7. Also yeah, I don't really like the squeeze preflop cuz of the whole raise from UTG thing. Also, from what I understand about live poker, no one likes to fold preflop ever, so I think your chance of taking it down pre are not that great. Good thing you flop like a pro. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]