$10 mtt on FTP - 6max

[aceskay]

Just got moved to table, no reads.

Is this just a simple fold when he bets so much?

Should I just fold pf even though I'm closing the action at 5:1?


Full Tilt Poker Game #3889904913: $10 + $1 Tournament (29535374), Table 3 - 15/30 - No Limit Hold'em - 2:20:08 ET - 2007/10/18
Seat 1: spacemonkey159 (2,645)
Seat 2: Ph272 (5,490)
Seat 4: austin1072 (2,370)
Seat 5: nopera (3,760)
Seat 6: aceskay (1,465)
nopera posts the small blind of 15
aceskay posts the big blind of 30
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aceskay [6h 8h]
micsquab sits down
micsquab adds 4,000
spacemonkey159 raises to 90
Ph272 calls 90
austin1072 folds
nopera calls 75
aceskay calls 60
*** FLOP *** [3s 2s 4d]
nopera checks
aceskay checks
spacemonkey159 checks
Ph272 checks
*** TURN *** [3s 2s 4d] [8d]
nopera checks
aceskay checks
spacemonkey159 checks
Ph272 bets 360
nopera folds
aceskay???

[levAA]

fold preflop
check/fold flop
check/fold turn

[swede554]

I do 't think it's a big mistake calling if you play well postflop. That said turn is a check-fold.

[levAA]

yes if my name was negreanu, i played the table for at least 2 hours, the tournament is live and i have valuable reads on the other players than i might consider playing trash like this oop - but until then i fold.

[Rocco]

I think paying another 60 to see the flop multiway is perfectly OK. But... I only proceed if I flop at least two pair or a strong draw, and my aim is to get all the chips in the middle.

[levAA]

probability to flop 2 pairs: 2%
probability to flop trips: 1,35%

you pay 60 and have about 1400 left - this is 4,2%

and this calculation assumes that you get all your chips in the middle, which won't be possible anytime, and there are times when you hold 2 pairs (which almost alway will be bottom 2) and loose.

so in the long run this is a -EV play imo.

[Rocco]

[ QUOTE ]
probability to flop 2 pairs: 2%
probability to flop trips: 1,35%

you pay 60 and have about 1400 left - this is 4,2%

and this calculation assumes that you get all your chips in the middle, which won't be possible anytime, and there are times when you hold 2 pairs (which almost alway will be bottom 2) and loose.

so in the long run this is a -EV play imo.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree this is a -EV play, you're being too nitty if you fold here IMO. In addition to two pair and trips, I also mentioned a strong draw. You have 12% chance of hitting a flush draw and I guess something eqaully to hit a straight draw. Out of these I consider 1 pair plus draw is pretty strong and I tend to play them aggressively.

[erc007]

[ QUOTE ]
I do 't think it's a big mistake calling if you play well postflop. That said turn is an easy check-fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

[nhWPjstUnLKy]

i agree with Rocco
you can get a very strong draw, or outplay some1 with these kinda hands.

[levAA]

rocco, i would totally agree with you if we were somewhere in LP - the probability for a flush draw is 10,9% btw, and the straight draw is much lesser as this is a one-gapper - but we are in the BB.

i think hands like this are to bad to play them for value in any way - so you have to increase your equity by stealing - and stealing in a multiway pot usually isn't one of the easiest things.