Help me Quantify the value of this middle

[bekman]

Guys,

Today I took NCAAB Creighton/Neb
under 129 -102 for $95.50
over 127 -110 for $99.00

I know that I have a middle opportunity at 127 and 129, with a win of both bets if they land on 128.

Can you help me quantify how much juice this bet is worth if the opportunity comes again (I spent -13c juice on it again with another team, same situation). Also, is there any terminology for hitting 128? My friend and I have been calling it a "super-middle" for lack of a better description, but a correct term would be appreciated. Thanks.

[silentbob]

I could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like gunning for a middle in BASKETBALL totals could ever be +EV.

[reachrevolver]

LOL.. I'm too lazy to do your math but don't listen to this guy

[silentbob]

Is it so preposterous when you consider the distribution of totals in basketball versus, say, football? Unless we're talking about a middle of 10 points (and my guess is that the line for totals never moves that much in basketball), it doesn't seem worthy of pursuit unless you're not paying any juice.

[dankhank]

pinny seems to charge 5c-6c for half a point in totals of that size, so that would give you a line equivalent of over 128 +100... thus it looks slightly profitable to me. in other words there's normally 20 cents of juice in the gap and you only spent 13 to cover it.

no official term for if you land on 128 with this bet. some call it heaven, bombs over tokyo, a precursor to hookers and blow, etc.

[playersare]

sides and middles on baseketball spreads and totals are generally good if you can spend about 5c per half point combined (though slightly less on totals, maybe 3-4c). there are 4 half points between 127 and 129, so 12c is probably no worse than breakeven. I would probably play it myself if I saw it.

a middle that falls directly between two wagers without touching either side is commonly called a "clean middle". but any positive exclamation will suffice.

[ImBen]

Highly profitable. Assuming an ultra-conservative 2.4% push frequency, this middle has an expected profit of 69.3%.

[ImBen]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it so preposterous when you consider the distribution of totals in basketball versus, say, football? Unless we're talking about a middle of 10 points (and my guess is that the line for totals never moves that much in basketball), it doesn't seem worthy of pursuit unless you're not paying any juice.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hilarious stuff.

[playersare]

[ QUOTE ]
I could be wrong, but it doesn't seem like gunning for a middle in BASKETBALL totals could ever be +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
yeah you go on "modifying your chases" and stay away from unprofitable crap like this

Nov 14 11:39pm Basketball - Winner 550.00 to win 500.00 500.00
1. Basketball - Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic - total Over 206 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 7:05pm [winner]
Nov 14 11:40pm Basketball - Winner 275.00 to win 250.00 250.00
1. Basketball - Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic - total Over 206 (-110)
for the entire game held on Nov 15 at 7:05pm [winner]



87754375-1
44 7:31am
15-Nov-06 15-Nov-06 Basketball
Total Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic (U 208) for Game -104 260.00 250.00
99 - 108 NBA
87756281-1
45 8:22am
15-Nov-06 15-Nov-06 Basketball
Total Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic (U 208) for Game -107 267.50 250.00
87728812-1
38 8:41pm
14-Nov-06 15-Nov-06 Basketball
Total Denver Nuggets/Orlando Magic (U 208) for Game -105 262.50 250.00

[Thremp]

PA,

Calm down. They are only middles.

I managed to snag O143 -115 and U147 -110. And it didn't hit. They must be -EV.