FTP 200 PLO, very interesting turn card

[Vinetou]

You should really bet more on the turn. Now you are in tough spot because you didn't bet the turn with your strong hand.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
Change post, you either misread hand or mistyped post, you don't have the 2nd NFD. As played $35-$40 on the turn looks good. I'd probably fold the river when the offsuit J falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, sorry. I confused 2 different hands I was going to post and messed it up. The action and cards are correct. My statement was incorrect - I DO NOT have the 2nd NFD.

[paulw]

If you havent seen him get out of line as you say, or do this post flop i.e. bet missed draws or do stupid crap post flop with air then I probably lean towards a fold, in the heat of the moment I find myself calling to much in these spots but they always seem to have it when you look them up. Also agree about showing more strength on turn would make this an easier decision.

[iggymcfly]

You should definitely be potting the turn (or at least betting 80%+ of the pot). AA or a ragged two pair are nowhere near as likely as an OESD or wrap given the action. He could have easily picked up a better flush draw as well. You have to hammer this and charge him full price.

As played, I'd call the river. It sounds more like you have no read than that you have a specific read that he "doesn't get out of line" and all his stats say is that he's not very good. This is exactly the kind of player that could c/c the whole way with a weak draw and then try to steal when the scare card hits on the river.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
You should definitely be potting the turn (or at least betting 80%+ of the pot). AA or a ragged two pair are nowhere near as likely as an OESD or wrap given the action. He could have easily picked up a better flush draw as well. You have to hammer this and charge him full price.

As played, I'd call the river. It sounds more like you have no read than that you have a specific read that he "doesn't get out of line" and all his stats say is that he's not very good. This is exactly the kind of player that could c/c the whole way with a weak draw and then try to steal when the scare card hits on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with pretty much everything you wrote here. The bolded part I agree with also, but I wanted to point out that I didn't say he doesn't get out of line. The point I was trying to make was just that the stats were all I had to conclude that he was a bad player and that I hadn't seen him do anything retarded. So, it definitely is more accurate to say that I had almost no read at all.

I agree with the people who say to bet more on the turn. I should have bet close to full pot. It was just a bad play. On real ragged flops like that (and also on paired ones) I bet less than normal just because you don't need to risk as much to get them to fold. But when he called, I should have charged him more on the turn.

I felt the river spot was a good place to look him up for the reasons you said. It looks a lot like he has a straight draw that missed as he probably would have made more noise at some point with a strong made hand like a set. Also, I bet the hand pretty weakly and it may have looked to him like I didn't have much and couldn't call a big bet.

I tanked for a bit, called and won, as he has a busted OESD with 65.

[blah_blah]

[ QUOTE ]
i would fold it

[/ QUOTE ]

ugh folding is disgusting. When we talk about villain always having 'it', what are we talking about? A really unlikely KJxx? A slowplayed 222? If villain pots any card 8 or lower (including an ace) that's one thing, but there is no reasonable hand that villain wouldn't blast on the turn that got there on the river.

[sqwisssssss]

[ QUOTE ]
the only way i can find a call here is if he had a high river agression factor. i think too many players give themselves these difficult river decisions by not making decisive enough flop and turn bets, so that villan dosent have this kind of leverage on the river, and this is a good example. if you just pot/pot then he might have $50 back on the river and getting 3-1 this is a much easier call



[/ QUOTE ]

[vetiver]

Just wondering why Jh is a scare card here and why multiple people conclude fold on river after promoting potting on turn. The logic behind potting turn is to make a likely wrap/OESD pay premium. 22 is the only probable holding that beats hero, as KJ probably c/c river as opposed to laying out a massive bet that only gets called when beat, and JJJ is like 1/1000. That being said, draws seem so much more likely given how villain plays it, and Jh does nothing to help draws.