High Stakes TD Hand (observed)

[monroe]

This is a $300-$600 hand I observed the other night. I thought it was kind of interesting. The players involved seemed to know each other well (that was my impression from the chat).

livewinner (CO) raises, whymeeee (BB) calls

whymeeee takes 3, livewinner takes 2

<font color="blue">check-bet-call</font>

Both take 2

<font color="blue">bet-raise-3bet-cap-call</font>

Both stand pat

<font color="blue">check-bet-call</font>

livewinner has 88A52, whymeeee has 96432

whymeeee was getting about 12 to 1 on the call. I think livewinner has to bet the river. First, whymeeee has to fold only 8-9% of the time for it to be profitable. Obviously, without knowing the big picture (how they play in general or specifically against each other), I would have to guess that whymeeee folds less often than that. But the fold equity IS greater than zero, I think, which means that livewinner is only losing a fraction (maybe a large one) of a big bet. He knows he can't win by checking behind, so...

There is some meta-game to the river bet also. I think livewinner should find a fold after whymeeee's turn 3-bet. But if he's going to do what he did on the turn (thoughts on this?) he might as well bet the river for the reasons above and also to say "Look how laggy I am!", which is probably important (to an extent) at these stakes.

I'm no expert at this game, I was just observing. If anyone can explain how this hand was well-played I'd like to hear it because I'd love to learn.

[The Big Easy]

Where was this game? Was it a mixed game or straight TD?

[monroe]

[ QUOTE ]
Where was this game? Was it a mixed game or straight TD?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ultimate Bet. Straight TD 2-7. They have A-5 as well.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
I think livewinner has to bet the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

His opponent sees livewinner stay pat, he is committed to a showdown. livewinner is an obvious fool if he bets the river at that point, his opponent is never folding to a bet.

PS: his river call with 88xxx sucked too.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[monroe]

Okay. Do you think the turn cap is equally bad?

Here is a hand from two orbits earlier.

<font color="blue">livewinner (UTG) raises, SaveMySkin (Button) 3-bets, whymeeee (SB) calls, livewinner calls </font>

Everyone takes 2

<font color="blue">whymeeee bets, livewinner raises, SaveMySkin calls, whymeeee 3-bets, livewinner caps, SaveMySkin calls, whymeeee calls </font>

whymeeee takes 1, livewinner is pat, SaveMySkin takes 2

<font color="blue">whymeeee checks, livewinner bets, SaveMySkin folds, whymeeee calls </font>

whymeeee takes 1, livewinner is pat

<font color="blue">check-check</font>

whymeeee has 76542, livewinner has ???

[*TT*]

Triple Draw is such a great game because its filled with donkeys at the higher levels. That hand also shows it, a good thinking player would bet after the third draw because a pat player will almost always call or raise, where as the check-raise will often fail. I'd rather have a minimum of 1 bet then watch it check through with a 9.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[monroe]

Thanks for the insight. What I will take from this is that it isn't always worth it to make justifications (by questionable longshot odds or metagame considerations) of strange plays. Sometimes bad poker is just bad poker, even at the highest stakes.

If you don't mind, here is one last hand that I made note of:

<font color="blue">SaveMySkin (Button) raises, -orange- (BB) 3-bets, SaveMySkin calls </font>

-orange- takes 1, SaveMySkin takes 2

<font color="blue">bet-call</font>

Both take 1

<font color="blue">check-check</font>

Both take 1

<font color="blue">bet-call</font>

-orange- has 88754, SaveMySkin has 22876

Is 5 to 1 enough to call with deuces? I think the pot is small enough that this has to be player dependant. With no reads this seems like a poor call. Am I wrong?

[Soviet Exile]

I think you have to call with the deuces there. It's the best pair, and your opponent's as likely to pair as you.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]

Is 5 to 1 enough to call with deuces? I think the pot is small enough that this has to be player dependant. With no reads this seems like a poor call. Am I wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

its razor thin close, but I'd Lean towards believing the pot is too small.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[DeathDonkey]

[ QUOTE ]
Triple Draw is such a great game because its filled with donkeys at the higher levels. That hand also shows it, a good thinking player would bet after the third draw because a pat player will almost always call or raise, where as the check-raise will often fail. I'd rather have a minimum of 1 bet then watch it check through with a 9.

TT [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with this. At the higher stakes one thing that is very frustrating is opponent's propensities to value bet the river with middlish type of hands whereas at lower stakes they would take a free showdown if you had drawn one previously. He cannot expect that the river will get checked through here and if it does, that is great for him in the future because he would much rather all rivers checked through when he has drawn one on the end out of position.

For SMS's river call with a pair of 2s hand, I'm sure it is read dependent as SMS seems like an absolutely great TDL player from what I've seen and his blog - but wtf is he doing in that other hand where he coldcalls twice after one draw and then draws two more vs a one and a pat - looks like something I would do goofing around at 4/8 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

And yeah the first hand is lagtastic but these guys are not easy to beat and hands like this make your variance sky high in an already high variance'd game.

-DeathDonkey