AK on the Button

[HouseCalls]

I've been AWOL for a bit (see upcoming tl;dr explanation in NC Thread) so I fgured it would be best to return with a hand post.

This was pretty early in the game but I had 56 hands of datamined stats on the villain:

VPIP 28.6
PFR 0
Flop AF .45 Turn AF 1.1 River AF 5.5

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (4.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#FF0000">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.70 BB

What do you put him on? What's your line? And why?

[KitCloudkicker]

i dont get why you raised the river, especially if you're calling a 3 bet.

A broadway T is easily in his range.

[Point Blank]

so villain is a passive tard that is running goot??

the board is AKQJ ... and this guy leads out ... if you raise you have to fold when he 3bets (IMO)

of course this could change ... House - you should know better than to give AF river stats over such a small range of hands (he's probably only seen the river like 3 or 4 times and hit on all ... unless you have an actual read that says otherwise)

[tyler_cracker]

raise/call the river is worse than just folding, and folding is pretty bad.

[HouseCalls]

Hmmm interesting... ok let me take you through what I was thinking as I played this. I agree that this is not at all standard but that's why I thought this was kind of interesting.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
Hand Converter Tool from DeucesCracked.com

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls.

<font color="blue"> Open limping form fish doesn't narrow his range much (especially with a PFR of 0) but I think we can at least assume that he does not have KK or AA. </font>

Flop: (5.40 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

<font color="blue"> When a passive player donks the flop I assume he got a piece of it most likely making a pair which I'm still ahead of so I raise for value. When he just calls I'm pretty comfortable that he is on a pair.</font>

Turn: (4.70 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls.

<font color="blue"> Ugh [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] His re-donking on the turn is obviously not good for me. At this point I think he can have two pair with KQ, KJ, or QJ or he can have a straight with AT or T9. However, I don't think that a player who is this passive would have donked the flop with either of these hands so I think these are less likely. I'm sure I'm behind but the pots decent size and I picked up some straight outs so I peel.</font>

River: (6.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#FF0000">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#FF0000">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#FF0000">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 12.70 BB

<font color="blue"> This obviously is the most interesting part. He leads again but based on the range I had him on I was not convinced that the A helped him. That's why I raised here. When he 3-bet I threw up in my mouth a little but at that point I figured I had to call down in a pot this big. OK that's my story and I'm sticking to it. Thoughts, riducule and derisive laughter are welcome. </font>

[bravos1]

hand is fine....





















until the river spew [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Sorry HC [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[knockonwood]

call the river, don't raise.

[Zeldark]

The fact that he woke back up on the turn and lead the river makes me not want to raise it unless I don't mind a 3-bet. Which I do.

[HouseCalls]

lol - ok ok I hear you.

He showed down QJ and I scooped. The reason I posted this was because when I played it I just "knew" what he had. When I looked at it later in PT I thought it looked prtty spewy myself so I wanted to see what people thought.

Proving once again...

Better to be lucky than good [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Daniel Magix]

:g:

It seems like it could be KT or KJ. KJ makes some sense, since he just called your flop 3bet, but led into you on the turn. But 3-betting KJ on this River doesn't seem to make sense, given that just about any hand you raised PF and then raised on that flop - JJ-AA,AT-AK, would now have him beat (this is assuming he is paying attention). KT makes sense based on the flop and river action, but why would KT lead into the turn after you raised the flop (unless he felt much more confident in picking up the extra outs)? Nah, he likes the J, it gave him two pair.

I don't think the river raise is bad, I think you shoulda capped. He has KJ.