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#121
05-04-2005, 02:06 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
I've played a decnt amount in the 30 game, but I don't datamine, so I have nowhere near the stats that some of you have to search through. For the life of me, I can't figure out who this is, although I have a few possiblities. I respect the fact that we don't throw around others screen names in the public forum...but if a PM is appropriate, I would appreciate it. I would like to see what I could learn from this player...I think it could really be educational. [/ QUOTE ] theres nothing to learn...he plays like crap!! i've logged many hands with him and i'm just working w/ data right now to find out just how unlikely it is that he plays like that and wins. -Barron 
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#123
05-04-2005, 08:40 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
theres nothing to learn...-Barron [/ QUOTE ] I appreciate the work you're doing to quantify his game but certainly there IS something to learn, whether it is precisely what he's doing and how to potentially apply that to our games OR establish that he's doing something shady and then warning PP about it. Because I don't know about all of you, but I'd like to have that BB/100 stat and I'm interested to see what he's doing to get it (either to know if it's possible OR realize that some are out there cheating to get it and then avoiding them). Barron Vangor Toth www.BarronVangorToth.com
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#124
05-04-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: DERB
If appropriate, could someone let me know as well who this person is. There is a player I can think of that plays the 10/20 15/30 like this, and I was always wondering how he wins. He is very agressive and seems to run people out of the pot an awful lot. This is interesting, because I beat up on him and dont fold to him, but I see others doing it. If someone could let me know, I would really appreciate it.
Jason
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#125
05-04-2005, 11:01 PM
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Re: DERB
I don't know the guy in question so no comments there.
However, one of the biggest online winners overall, someone who never gets mentioned on these forums, runs at ~27% vpip (stars 30-60, 100-200) in 7handed+ games. If I wasn't absolutely certain he was a big winner, I would consider him a fish. His numbers seem bad, and he does things that I don't understand. But he's destroying the games he plays in. Just goes to show that simply looking at a VPIP number isn't going to give you the information you need. Not that that's the case here, just that saying "he plays 30% of hands, he must be losing" isn't really a good argument.
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#126
05-04-2005, 11:07 PM
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Re: DERB
[ QUOTE ]
"he plays 30% of hands, he must be losing" isn't really a good argument. [/ QUOTE ] Agreed. I absolutely believe it's possible to be a winning player with a 30. I think for most people, it isn't a viable strategy, as your post-flop skills have to be excellent. The key boils down to what the other Barron (okay, he was here first, so the original Barron) discovers with his data. I know some (the other/original Barron included) have said that this isn't skill, but I'm not entirely convinced. Yet. Even though it probably is either variance ahoy or collusion ahoy in some fashion. Barron Vangor Toth www.BarronVangorToth.com
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#127
05-04-2005, 11:45 PM
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Re: DERB
Out of curiousity, and I'm not trying to be a dick, have you ever played with this guy before? He does not play a +EV style. You're going to drive yourself nuts if you try to explain this run rationally.
-James
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#129
05-05-2005, 12:04 AM
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Re: DERB
We are talking about "L" and not "P" right? I think he really has the # of some ppl causing them to make pot size mistakes. The mistakes he makes though are bet sized ones and get him big action on his good hands. I wouldn't guess that he'd be a winning player, but money makes a strong argument and I'm not going to totally ignore it.
-f
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#130
05-05-2005, 12:08 AM
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Re: DERB
I think its very interesting that both you and James think he is an awful player, yet stoxtrader thinks he is an awesome player.
Anyone know his exact SD/100? Maybe putting his results into confidence intervals might shed some light on his over/under. I think if you fool around with some numbers the under is at least $100/hour(which is actually pretty bad in this game, but given that its his bare minumum its likely he makes much more, and at the very least isn't a losing player). EDIT: OK i punched in a few numbers for the stats i have for him. I have 93205 hands, Winrate of 2.58(assuming all are 30/60). SD/100 Lower Bound Upper Bound 20 1.3 3.87 21 1.24 3.93 22 1.17 4 23 1.11 4.06 24 1.05 4.13 25 0.98 4.19 26 0.92 4.26 27 0.85 4.32 28 0.79 4.38
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