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Old 07-19-2007, 11:53 AM
UtzChips UtzChips is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Posts: 800
Default Here\'s a hand with a read

I've played 759 hands against villain. He's 34.91/12.52/1.43
and he's in the CO on this hand.

He open/raises and it's folded to me in the BB with KQo.

First Question:
He seez the flop 29.71% of the time from this seat. He raises 17.39% of the time from the CO and raises 1st in 12.32. He goes to SD 32.43% of the time and wins 50%.

With it being 5 handed, I figure it would probably be slightly higher than the avg. No? Probably 35% and raise 1st in as much as 29%. ?

So, because of my putting him on a wider range, I figure my KQo is very strong and decided not to 3 bet PF, because:
-it would give too much info away about my strength b4 we saw the flop and I don't have an ace.

-If the flop is good for me, I can go for the ck/raise and get as many bets in on the flop, as if I had 3 bet PF and then bet out on the flop and he called.

-If I just call PF and ck a flop that is good for me, he has to put me on a wide range, which a K or Q high board could very well have missed me, or given me a draw, and even if it missed him, he could very well believe he can pick up the pot on the flop with a bet (unless I flopped a draw or had a K/Q), since I didn't raise PF.

Good thinking?

I think it's an excellent way to approach the hand h/u v. my opponent and would like confirmation.

The only drawback to my play, that I see, is that by 3 betting PF, if the flop comes AQx, I can bet out and have much better chance of getting rep'd as having a big ace. I figure the flop is going to come A and K/Q or J much less often than K/Q high. Couple that with the fact that I don't have a freakin ace and villain is probably playing most any ace and I love my play even more.

I'll post the flop, once I get some replies on opinions of my line of reasoning.

Thanx.
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Old 07-19-2007, 11:58 AM
secretprankster secretprankster is offline
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 869
Default Re: Here\'s a hand with a read

You have some good thoughts, but some are erroneous as well imo.

First off, if you call preflop and the flop is K- or Q-high and you checkraise, your hand is not very well disguised. It's likely to be the best hand, but king/queen hands are the core of BB calling ranges.

Second, if you 3-bet preflop (I wouldn't), and bet out on a AQx flop - you ARE repping the ace, but this isn't really a good thing because KQ on this board is right on the cusp of better hands continue, worse hands fold.
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