flopped top set...

[robrobdoe]

First post here (been lurking for a bit). Not been playing limit hold'em for that long, so would appreciate a check on this hand.

UTG+1 was 21/5.4/1.3 after around 100 hands
Hadn't played for long with BB, but he seemed fairly loose-passive

PokerStars 0.05/0.10 Hold'em (8 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (9.70 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero calls, BB calls.

River: (19.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero...

Final Pot: 31.70 BB

[scpi10]

grunch

Hero folds. Based on UTGs stats he is a very tight raiser pf. It looks as if he hit his Q on hte turn to make trips.
You have the 5th best hand possible and the river is very big so maybe call but if BB 3 bets and UTG caps that would be bad, so I would just fold it the first time.

[synth_floyd]

It's .05/.10 hold em. I'd say call. Based on the past actions of the Big blind it doesn't seem like he would reraise on the river so you could likely see a showdown for 2 more Big bets.

[kerowo]

[ QUOTE ]
grunch

Hero folds. Based on UTGs stats he is a very tight raiser pf. It looks as if he hit his Q on hte turn to make trips.
You have the 5th best hand possible and the river is very big so maybe call but if BB 3 bets and UTG caps that would be bad, so I would just fold it the first time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your read isn't good enough to fold this, not in a pot this big at this level. Call down, welcome to variance.

[scpi10]

I know it's .05/.1 but what does a 21/5.4 raise cap pf with. Then raises a donk but only smooth calls the pf 3 bettor. Then a Q hits and he raise caps it after the hero 3 bets it. It could be AQ QQ KK or AA but the river raise says it's not KK he's ahead of AQ but behind AA or QQ.

[robrobdoe]

I made the call (didn't think I could fold given the size of the pot). Then:

River: (19.70 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 caps</font>, Hero...

Can I assume I'm definitely beat now, or is the pot again too big to fold?

[nomadtla]

[ QUOTE ]
Can I assume I'm definitely beat now, or is the pot again too big to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have? Think about that and then tell me what you think of both river decisions.

[robrobdoe]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a common missconception. That a pot can reach a level where no matter what the info tells you, you should not fold. The question is never, is the pot too big to fold? The question is, is the pot too big to fold relative to the level of information I have?

[/ QUOTE ]
Good point.

I'd say UTG+1's range preflop is AJ+, QQ, KK, AA
BB has a much wider range given I don't have much info on him, and he seems loose - pocket pair (probably not higher than 10s given he didn't cap), broadway cards, Ax, suited connectors maybe

Flop doesn't narrow it down much, UTG+1 could have an overpair, AJ or possibly just overcards AQ/AK, BB could have a J, underset (though he'd probably cap), loosely played pocket pair lower than Js

BB leads out again at turn but just calls raises, no idea what he could have; UTG+1 caps this time, suggesting set of Qs or AQ (with a flush draw?), might still be an overpair

BB leads out for third time at river, and UTG+1 raises. BB could still have almost anything. UTG+1 doesn't seem scared by A, so unlikely to be KK, could still be AQ, QQ, AA. Getting over 10:1 on the call, not knowing enough about BB, and not expecting a raise behind from BB, I think the first call is correct.

After that, with the BB reraising for the first time, it suggests he's hit something (aces up, straight, outside chance of AA); UTG+1 capping means he's a lot more likely to have an overset than AQ. So the second time round, it should be a fold.

Any good?

[MoonOrb]

I think you call down here. It's essentially the same action as on the turn, with the BB leading out and UTG+1 raising. You only fear 3 hands (AA, QQ, and K10). You can't give either villain credit for K10 given the action so far, although QQ and AA might make sense for UTG+1.

With BB calling a 3Bet preflop, 22 or 44 or maybe QJs or AJs or something like that might make sense for him.

In short, I'm surprised if you're behind BB, so it's just a matter of how likely you think it is that UTG+1 is holding AA or QQ. His capping range could easily include any AK or AQ holding.

If you're willing to call 2 on the river the first time around, I don't think you can draw enough of a conclusion from the BB's 3 bet that you're definitely beat. So either fold when it's 2 to you the first time because or call down all the way.

I'm calling here, BTW.

[Xylocain]

:g:

I think I can find a fold on the river, but I'm not going to [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Really, Villans lines pretty much only makes sense if one of the has QQ and the other has AA, but god knows ... the reason Im a bit reluctant to call is that we dont have much hope of closing the action so there is like a 75% chance that well get two more back before its over.