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#2
11-12-2007, 03:56 AM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
[ QUOTE ]
AA, JJ, 77, or 66? It just seems like you have the deck crushed, and you're not worried about SB improving. [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what I think. I'm going to go with JJ. UTG is stacking off no matter what, and you don't look like you have any interest in blowing out the sb. You get max value by not raising - he'll probably be calling down here with any pair, but a raise anywhere might have blown him out of the pot. You don't care since you probably have him drawing slim/dead. The turn card is probably great for your hand, in that you're praying for a c/r from the sb. 
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#3
11-12-2007, 07:32 AM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
People need to stop slowplaying sets in big pots when no one is going to fold anyway.
If Hero has a set on the flop he played it like a retard. If he has AA he played like an even bigger retard. I cant see what Hero can have here that is well played either
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#4
11-12-2007, 08:03 AM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
[ QUOTE ]
It just seems like you have the deck crushed, and you're not worried about SB improving. [/ QUOTE ] This is just one part of it. Say UTG has something retarded like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and SB has K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Also say Hero has JJ. Equities are hero 89% UTG 5% SB 6% If SB folds they are Hero 95% UTG 5% So lets say hero just calls the flop and SB calls as well. Then Hero makes about .89SB of the small bet SB puts in right now. Lets say hero raises and SB folds. Then Hero makes 6% of a 16SB pot ~ 1SB But now assume that when Hero raises then SB calls. This is not at all unlikely. UTG then 3-bets all-in behind and Hero gets to cap and SB calls again. Now Hero wins 0.89*4 ~ 3.6SB of the bets SB puts in. This analysis is disregarding the implied odds. Say hero just calls the flop and SB stays in. Whenever SB hits a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9, T, Q, K, A then he is gonna put in 1 more bet on the turn or maybe even raise. However, when a T, A or [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] comes of he gets a really nice draw and if he sucks out hero will at least loose 3 BB's on the big streets. I do believe tho that the implied odds of having SB staying in should be slightly positive. But I stronly doubt it will off set the value of hving BB putting in 4 SB's on the flop with 6% eq. Lets take another example. Change SB's hand to 99 and Heros to 66. Now the equities are hero 84% UTG 4% SB 12% And without SB Hero 95% UTG 5% This time Hero stands to gain 11% in eq of a 16SB pot if he raises and SB folds. Even more than 1SB. And the implied odds of SB staying in arent as good as SB cannot improve to a second best hand but whenever he improves to the best hand Hero will loose at least 3 BB's on the big streets. I am sorry. But anyone who wants to slowplay sets in big pots need to stop doing it ASAP. And if you have been doing it, you have been loosing money. We still play to win money right?
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#6
11-12-2007, 11:45 AM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
very nice post oink.
If you don't have a monster, maybe QTs. Sb can fold KQ.
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#7
11-12-2007, 12:21 PM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
KTs is possible too.
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#8
11-12-2007, 12:45 PM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
The hand was not a set. I do not slow play sets. In fact I consider myself super aggressive. Probably too aggressive (which I'm working on).
However, if you put me on a set then my river bet was okay. Here are the hands, SB had KQo and called my river bet. I had QTo and bluffed the river. I do not think it was bad to 3 bet UTG and get him heads up and in position, especially given UTG's range. It turned out I was right and he had 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. But then again is this too loose in this situation? Also, the red flag went up when the unknown SB called me. I guess from what Yourface (first couple of replies) said I should have thrown in a raise on the flop or turn to actually make my river bluff believable???? This is why I wanted you guys to put me on a hand. I guess I played post flop really poorly. But because SB called 3 cold preflop, I put the brakes on and played passively. I just called the flop and river since I figured I was drawing to my Q or T (at the time I did not know my Q outs were bad, figured maybe SB had a small PP) and drawing to the gutshot on the turn, which is why I did not put in a raise. Is my river bluff bad in this situation given the pot size was 10 BBs? I just dont see how SB could call my river bet with K high in this hand, unless like I said I biffed the flop and turn and it made my river bet fake.
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#9
11-12-2007, 12:52 PM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
the pot may be 10BBs but there is no side pot at all. you're not going to bluff out someone who is all in, and even if he is a maniac he will have a pair+ pretty often here esp with the ace on the turn
the overlay you would need for your bet to be correct would be - UTG has a worse hand than queen high - SB has KQ or QT and will fold I don't think that it is enough to bet
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#10
11-12-2007, 01:11 PM
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Re: Isolation play but you play SB and put me on a hand.
The good thing with this move is : sb is unlikely to call us, because with no side pot, he has to beat utg and btn.
QTo is too weak to raise pf imo. Position don't help because he's will be all in and your edge agaisnt his range is tiny. Moreover you are in bad shape if a blind caps.
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