How to play low pairs in draw?

[AceOfClubs]

Hello! Here is example: solid player from UTG raised(let's assume you know that he has AA or KK)and everyone called. You are on BB with 88. Should you call or fold here?

[TomTom]

So you limp after getting like 11:1 and pray for trips or better.

I don’t get too crazy with this hand. C/C one back is all I'll do without a strong read.

(Good to see a 5CD post agin.)

[LLCoolDave]

You do get immediate odds to draw to a set here (in case this is a 6max FL table, if it's shorter or PL/NL your odds are worse), but you don't hold a great hand even if you DO hit one of your two outs, as you are out of position and you got to consider what might have made the other people call. On higher Limits I can't really imagine seeing a 6 handed drawing round with a single raise in the pot. On lower limits you're likely to be up against 2 or 3 pairs, 2 straight or flush draws and perhaps a low two pair or something. In any case, the chances of one of them improving to a hand better than your eights is fairly decent (I estimate around 50% or even higher), so even if you do hit your one in eight draw you shouldn't be too happy about it.

I somehow think this hand is only slightly +EV to call, and that's from the rather big implied odds when hitting your rare Full House here. This hand is definitly more playable if you have 3 overcards to your 88, but I wouldn't expect this to be a big winner. (However I stand to be corrected)

[Siegmund]

A person with KK+ raised UTG, and EVERYone called?

Do you really think that a small set is going to win this pot something like 80% of the time, to justify chasing? Unless everyone else at the table is a complete maniac, coldcalling with a baby pair... I can't see wanting to play this.

Yes, you'll make good money if you hit your full house. You'll loose lots of money to set over set too.

[Idolatrous]

[ QUOTE ]
You'll loose lots of money to set over set too.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this is where a good player will be distinguished from a junk player.

[bigpooch]

IF (and it is a BIG "IF") you know for certain that the
player utg has precisely AA or KK, then calling with 88 is
LIKELY to be correct. The only problem is in practice, the
only thing you know is that the UTG has AT LEAST KK about
98% of the time (including straight flush draws).

Also, there is also a tiny chance that somebody (esp. the
hijack) might have decided to smooth call with an ace-high
flush or better just to get other players to call two bets
cold (seeing the table composition, it would turn out to be
a huge success in this hand!).

But let's assume everyone has at most either a pair bigger
than 88 or a flush draw and make some rough calculation of
the chances you'll make the best hand.

As somebody also mentioned, even if you did hold something
like 88QT9, someone else might start with a bigger pair and
make larger trips. If nobody is playing a pair less than 88
unless it is a flush draw, let's say "on average" a specific
opponent will make a hand better than 888 with a probability
of about 14% (it's about 19% to complete a flush and about
13% to make trips+ drawing three to a pair). Then, about
47% of the time, making three eights is going to be enough,
so that's about 6.1% of the time (but you unfortunately
can't be happy about betting it) and you can also add about
3.1% when you improve to two pairs in this situation and
everyone else misses as well. Then, for the other 53% of
the time, you are hoping to make a boat, so say you win
about 0.7% of the times here. Altogether, your chances of
making the best hand is about 9.9% of the time, but since
we've been slightly conservative in the calculations (we
ignored the case when we improve to exactly two pairs and
somebody also does, but we still win; OTOH, we've been also
assuming we win everytime we make a boat, which clearly
won't be the case!) let's say it is about 10%, and since
you need about 9 to 1, and you're getting about 10.5 to 1
(not quite 11-1 because of the rake), you have a call.

The big point is if you even make trips is not to bet it
since you'll likely only get called or raised by a better
hand (it's about 53% that somebody will make a better hand)
but to check and call depending on who bet and what spot
you are in (often, you may have to check and fold!). Also,
when you do hit a boat or better, that's when you often win
extra bets (or lose some if you run into a bigger one!), but
since you make a boat only about 1.4% of the time, the
implied odds won't amount to a lot.

So, if the utg doesn't have better than AA and nobody is
trapping, this seems to be a call if you exercise good
judgment after the draw. Even if the player utg has better
than KK or AA, it won't affect the chances that much and
unless there is a very good chance that somebody decided to
smooth call with a flush or better, calling seems correct.
Of course, if you held 88AK9, you are worse off than if you
held 88QT9 since the utg opener is less likely to hold just
a pair of kings or aces.

Summary
--------

IF you exercise good judgment after the draw, this is a
close call even if the utg HAS AT LEAST KK, although I
wouldn't think you would lose much (if anything at all) if
you mucked precisely 88AKx. If the pot were 5-way only,
calling would usually be submarginal.